Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Financial Sector Concerns, Global Growth Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Software longs, Biotech longs, Semi longs, Gaming longs and Commodity shorts. I covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is mixed as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, most sectors are rising and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bullish. The VIX is falling 4.25% and is still high at 27.33. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 78.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.14. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running below average most of the day and is currently .63. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is rising 4.74% today to 92.38 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising 3.4% today to 140.69. The TED spread is rising 5.23% to 141.0. Growth stocks are outperforming value stocks by a very wide margin again today. Many small/mid-cap growth stocks are especially strong. The market appears to have made a tradable low this morning. Nikkei futures indicate a -20 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +100 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, falling energy prices and bargain-hunting.

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