Bloomberg:
- Spending by U.S. consumers rebounded in October more than anticipated, an indication that mounting unemployment has yet to stifle American’s willingness to buy. The 0.7 percent increase in purchases was larger than the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a 0.6 percent September drop, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes climbed 0.2 percent, also exceeding expectations. “People have been too negative for too long on the consumer,” said John Herrmann, chief economist at Herrmann Forecasting in Summit, New Jersey, who accurately forecast the gain in spending. “We’re seeing very positive spending signals for November.” Because the increase in spending was larger than the gain in incomes, the savings rate fell to 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent the prior month. Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, increased 0.4 percent, the most since May. Adjusted for inflation, disposable income increased 0.2 percent.
- The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level since September 2008 as the economic recovery encourages companies to fire fewer workers. Initial jobless claims declined to 466,000 in the week ended Nov. 21 from 501,000 a week earlier, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance dropped in the prior week, while those getting extended payments also declined. After slashing more than 7 million jobs in the past two years, companies may have little margin to cut further without threatening their capacity to ramp up production as the economy recovers. The government may report next week that employers in November shed the fewest jobs in 20 months. The report showed the four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, dropped to 496,500 last week from 513,000 the prior week. Continuing claims declined by 190,000 in the week ended Nov. 14 to 5.423 million. They were forecast to drop to 5.57 million. Today’s report showed the unemployment rate among people eligible for jobless benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, fell to 4.1 percent in the week ended Nov. 14 from 4.3 percent.
- Fixed 30-year mortgage rates dropped for a fourth consecutive week, matching a record low set in April, in a decline that may further support increasing sales in the battered housing market. The rate dropped to 4.78 percent from 4.83 percent last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The average 15-year rate was 4.29 percent. Low mortgage costs and a tax credit for first-time homebuyers are helping increase demand for property, putting existing home sales on pace to hit 6.1 million this year. A falling number of unsold homes is also beginning to stabilize prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.27 percent in September from August, the fourth consecutive gain. “When mortgage rates track down to well below 5 percent, that is a key threshold that generates a lot of interest in terms of new purchases and refinancing,” said Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The market is gradually pulling out of this huge hole, this huge recession it was in.”
- Tiffany & Co.(TIF), the world’s second- largest luxury-jewelry retailer, reported third-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates and boosted its full-year forecast as revenue grew in Asia and Europe. The shares gained. “Sales trends continue to improve whether it is the lower end of retail or all the way up to the luxury sector,” said Matt Arnold, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. “Consumers’ sentiment has swung from extreme pessimism at the beginning of the year to where some discretionary spending is happening again. They are cautiously optimistic that the economic rebound will gain steam.” Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year improved as the quarter progressed, Mark Aaron, a spokesman, said on a conference call with investors and analysts.
- Deere & Co.(DE), the world’s largest maker of farm equipment, said retail sales of its machines to farmers were better than expected in November. “As we moved out of October and into November we have seen actually a pickup in the pace of retail activity and it actually influenced our outlook a bit,” Marie Ziegler, vice president of investor relations, said today on a conference call. “So we’re maybe a little more positive than we would have been a few weeks ago.”
- Dubai World, with $59 billion of liabilities, said it will seek to delay debt payments, sending contracts to protect the emirate against default surging by the most since they began trading in January. The state-controlled company will ask all creditors for a “standstill” agreement as it negotiates to extend maturities, including $3.52 billion of Islamic bonds due on Dec. 14 from its property unit Nakheel PJSC, the builder of palm tree-shaped islands, Dubai World said in an e-mailed statement. Moody’s Investors Service said it would consider the plan a default should bondholders be forced to accept the terms. “Extending the maturity of Nakheel debt is feeding the market’s uncertainty on which debt Dubai will honor in full,” said Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst covering sovereign wealth funds at New York-based Roubini Global Economics. “They look desperate and the market is concerned that in the long term Dubai’s indebtedness is rising not falling.”
- Emerging-market bond returns rose to an all-time high and stocks advanced as the global economic recovery and record-low interest rates spurred demand for higher yielding assets from the world’s fastest growing nations. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emerging Markets Bond Index, the EMBI+, jumped to 496.75 percent as of 11:25 a.m. in New York, the highest point since JPMorgan’s data began in December 1993.
- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. rebounded more than anticipated in October as buyers rushed to take advantage of a government tax credit before it expired. Sales rose 6.2 percent to an annual pace of 430,000, the highest level since September 2008, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price fell 0.5 percent and the number of unsold homes reached a four-decade low. Sales of new homes were up 5.1 percent from October 2008, the first year-over-year gain since November 2005. Inventories dropped. The number of homes for sale fell to a seasonally adjusted 239,000, the fewest since May 1971. The supply of homes at the current sales rate decreased to 6.7 months’ worth, the lowest level since December 2006. The erosion in prices is also abating, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed yesterday. Home prices in 20 cities rose in September from the prior month, the fourth straight gain.
- Crude oil rose above $76 a barrel as the dollar weakened against higher-yielding currencies amid signs of a global economic recovery, bolstering the investment appeal of commodities. Oil climbed as the U.S. currency slipped to a one-week low against the euro, encouraging investors to buy futures as a hedge against inflation. Asian shares also advanced on renewed optimism after Australia’s central bank said the country’s economy had entered a “new upswing.”
- Raising the U.S. government’s $12.2 trillion borrowing limit tops an agenda of must-pass legislation that imperils Senate Democrats’ ability to pass a health-care bill this year. As the senators struggle to meet President Barack Obama’s year-end deadline to overhaul the health system, they must also act to keep the government running and prevent a 21 percent drop in payments to doctors who treat Medicare patients. They need to approve measures to avert a Dec. 31 expiration of the estate tax, extend jobless benefits and renew key provisions of the anti-terrorism USA Patriot Act. “Given the practical considerations of the calendar, they will run out of time” this year, said Washington lobbyist Jack Howard, who was an aide to former Senate Republican Leader Trent Lott. Pushing the measure into 2010 may create problems for Democrats because Republicans would have more opportunity to make the overhaul an issue in the congressional election year. Unlike the House of Representatives, the Senate gives the minority party broad powers to delay proceedings.
- China blamed a “lack of good faith” on the part of developed nations for hampering talks on a treaty to fight global warming less than two weeks before the start of the United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen. Two years of talks have stalled amid disputes over the extent of emission reduction pledges by wealthier countries, policies to be implemented by the developing world and aid by the former to the latter to combat climate change. Neither China nor the U.S., the world’s biggest emitters, has proposed targets for lowering their greenhouse gases. “The reason that we have not seen sufficient progress in the negotiations so far, personally speaking, I think is because of a lack of good faith by developed countries,” Yu Qingtai, the Foreign Ministry’s climate-change envoy, told reporters in Beijing. He offered no new proposals on the part of China ahead of the talks, which begin Dec. 7.
Wall Street Journal:
- Military investigations into the Nov. 5 shooting spree here intensified Tuesday, with the arrival of two former top officials leading a Pentagon probe into what could have been done to prevent the shootings. Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan is accused of opening fire in a crowded facility when soldiers went to complete last-minute paperwork before heading overseas. He has been charged with 13 counts of premeditated murder. While the military pursues a criminal case against Maj. Hasan, a psychiatrist who was scheduled to be deployed to Afghanistan, the Pentagon is also probing whether officials could have done more to prevent the shootings.
CNBC:
- Despite the fact that jeans aren't a popular choice among gift-givers, denim sales will likely continue their upward trend this holiday season, as consumers slowly revive their self-spending levels and redeem gift cards on the latest trends, analysts said. Denim withstood the crash in consumer confidence that accompanied the recession, with the industry growing by about $440,000 on the year, according to data from the NPD Group research firm. While total apparel sales were down 4.3 percent last holiday, denim rose 1.4 percent, according to the group.
The Business Insider:
- Despite regulatory threats on the horizon, the outlook for the credit default swaps (CDS) market remains bright. While the CDS market's notional value of outstanding contracts fell 14% in 2009, it's still at massive $36 trillion of notional value. Swaps brokers and clearinghouses don't appear worried about its future according to DealBook.
- Goldman(GS) is increasingly confident in the end of year rally. In fact, a recent piece of research says December could be one of the strongest months of 2009 (not an easy feat considering the year we’ve had). Like other bullish investors, they believe seasonality will be an important influence on year-end action:
- Chart of the Day: Weekly Jobless Claims Lowest Since Sept. 2008.
zerohedge:
- An Expanded Look At The Hedge Fund Industry.
LATimes:
- California's huge public employee pension fund, under scrutiny after suffering billions of dollars in investment losses, is now investigating its own oversight of hedge fund deals. As part of the inquiry, California Public Employees' Retirement System officials found that $36 million was paid to two hedge fund advisors who had been working without contracts. The official who oversees the $5.8-billion hedge fund portfolio was temporarily placed on leave and fined, according to people briefed on the matter.
Rassmussen:
- Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand may have a serious problem on her hands if Rudy Giuliani gets in next year’s race for the U.S. Senate in New York State.
Politico:
- Pardoning a turkey at the White House Wednesday in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday, President Barack Obama noted that the tradition of saving a bird is a relatively new one. "I'm told Presidents Eisenhower and Johnson actually ate their turkeys. You can't fault them for that. That's a good-looking bird," Obama said. " 'Courage' will also be spared this terrible and delicious fate." He added: "I believe it's fair to say that we have saved or created four turkeys."
New York Magazine:
USAToday:
- Public approval of President Obama's handling of the war in Afghanistan has plummeted, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, amid rising pessimism about the course of the conflict. The nation is divided over what to do next: Nearly half of those surveyed endorse deploying thousands of additional U.S. troops, while four in 10 say it's time to begin withdrawing forces. The mixed picture comes as the president weighs a request from the top U.S. commander for about 40,000 more troops. Obama said Tuesday he would announce his decision after Thanksgiving. His extended deliberations may be taking a toll: 55% disapprove of the way he is handling Afghanistan and 35% approve, a reversal of his 56% approval rating four months ago. "He's being held responsible for a deteriorating situation and relentlessly bad news," says political scientist Richard Eichenberg of Tufts University. "But Americans continue to believe doing something about al-Qaeda in Afghanistan was the right thing to do." On a series of fronts, Obama is moving against headwinds: • By more than 2-1, Americans say the United States shouldn't close the terrorist prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, as Obama has promised. • By 49%-44%, they oppose passing a health care bill in Congress this year, which he calls critical. • A majority are against holding the trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in New York, and nearly six in 10 say the self-proclaimed 9/11 mastermind should be tried in a military rather than a civilian court. That's at odds with the decision announced this month by Attorney General Eric Holder. On Afghanistan, a record two-thirds say things are going badly for the United States, but six in 10 say the decision to send troops wasn't a mistake.
Reuters:
- An influential European parliamentarian is calling for borrowing caps on hedge funds in a report to lawmakers that could lead to a tough new regime for the secretive industry. The EU is examining a welter of regulations for the funds and other financial groups, including curbing pay and borrowing. This week the French parliamentarian appointed to broker a deal on the shape of the new laws, Jean-Paul Gauzes, will demand tougher rules for the industry than many had expected.
- Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc (GMCR) got an upper hand in the bidding war for Diedrich Coffee Inc (DDRX) Wednesday after Diedrich said Green Mountain's enhanced offer is superior to Peet's Coffee & Tea Inc's (PEET) bid. Diedrich said it intends to terminate the merger agreement with Peet's by paying a fee unless the latter amends its offer of $30.35 per share, based on Peet's closing price Tuesday. Separately, Peet's said it will consider all alternatives and take the action in the best interests of its shareholders over the next several days.
Financial Times:
- Beijing is facing a growing backlash from prominent figures in business and academia over claims that there has been creeping renationalization in parts of the economy during the last year. China’s economy has recovered sharply in recent months as a result of an unprecedented expansion of government-directed bank lending, which has largely been channeled to state-owned enterprises. However, critics say that the stimulus measures have also been accompanied by the state reasserting control over some sections of the economy, which could hurt the country’s long-term growth prospects. “Before the global economic crisis we still felt like we were moving continuously towards a more market-oriented and liberalized economy, but the government’s stimulus program has pushed that trend backwards,” Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, one of the country’s 10 largest property developers, told the Financial Times in an interview.“ We are seeing this in real estate but it is much worse in other industries where private players are being crushed.” The dominance of state-owned enterprises is being reasserted in a range of industries, including airlines, steel and coal-mining at the expense of private ownership – a phenomenon that has been called “guojin mintui”, translated as “the state advances as the private sector recedes”.
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