Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The U.S. economy may grow as much as 6 percent this year, helped by sales of consumer durables and increases in inventories, according to Deutsche Bank AG’s chief U.S. economist. The estimate is 50 percent higher than the bank’s 4 percent forecast last month and more than double the 2.60 percent median forecast for 2010 in a Bloomberg survey of 57 economists and analysts. “We feel that unemployment has peaked,” said Bankim Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist in New York. He echoed LaVorgna’s outlook, suggesting unemployment may fall to as little as 8.5 percent by the end of the year. The U.S. jobless rate held at 10 percent in December for a second month, the Labor Department reported on Jan. 8, after touching a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October.
- Google Inc.’s(GOOG) threat to pull out of China is the most visible reflection of U.S. companies’ growing disillusionment with the country nine years after it joined the World Trade Organization, business groups said. Washington trade organizations representing companies such as Microsoft Corp., Boeing Co., Intel Corp. and Cigna Corp., which all backed China’s entry into the WTO and fought off legislation to punish Chinese imports, say China is increasingly discriminating against them on government contracts and through unfair subsidies. “There are a growing number of bilateral problems,” William Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, which represents companies including Boeing and Cigna, said in an interview yesterday. “There is a lot of frustration on the part of companies, and the Chinese brought it on themselves.”
- China's exports of oil products including gasoline and diesel fuel in December exceeded imports for the first time ever, squeezing Asian refiners hoping to sell to the world's second-largest fuel consumer. China's exports of refined products in December outpaced imports, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs on Jan. 10. "If you're a Japanese fellow looking to export to China, you'd sure prefer to see them as big importers and you'd sure prefer to see them not exporting at all," said John Vautrain, a senior vice president at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. "The fact that they can export so much shows that they are a bit overbuilt" in terms of refinery capacity.
Wall Street Journal:
- President Barack Obama plans Thursday to propose taxing large banks based on their exposure to risk as a way to recover taxpayer losses from the 2008 bailout of the financial sector, people familiar with the matter said. The plan marks the latest in a slew of proposed fees, penalties and constraints the White House envisions slapping on Wall Street during the clean-up of the financial crisis. If approved by Congress, the new tax—which the White House calls a "financial crisis responsibility fee "—would force more than 25 banks to collectively pay the federal government roughly $100 billion over 10 years. The numbers could change as the final tally of losses from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program is calculated.
- Don't Like the Numbers? Change'Em. If a CEO issued the kind of distorted figures put out by politicians and scientists, he'd wind up in prison. Politicians and scientists who don't like what their data show lately have simply taken to changing the numbers. They believe that their end—socialism, global climate regulation, health-care legislation, repudiating debt commitments, la gloire française—justifies throwing out even minimum standards of accuracy. It appears that no numbers are immune: not GDP, not inflation, not budget, not job or cost estimates, and certainly not temperature. A CEO or CFO issuing such massaged numbers would land in jail. The late economist Paul Samuelson called the national income accounts that measure real GDP and inflation "one of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century." Yet politicians from Europe to South America are now clamoring for alternatives that make them look better.
- Comparing Wall Street titans to shady car salesmen, a committee investigating the financial crisis grilled the nation's top bankers Wednesday in the latest example of Washington's smoldering anger at an industry many there feel hasn't atoned for its role in the slump. "It sounds to me a little bit like selling a car with faulty brakes, and then buying an insurance policy on the buyer of those cars," said former California state Treasurer Phil Angelides, chairman of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, while questioning the chief executive of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS).
- Americans learned last year that President Obama discards campaign promises like most people discard used Kleenex. Among the pledges he cast aside were reducing the deficit, reining in federal spending, not allowing lobbyists to work in his administration, increasing taxes only on those who make more than $250,000, and opposing "government-run health care" because it is "extreme." This year, Mr. Obama is picking up where he left off.
MarketWatch.com:
- Price cuts spurred by increased demand and a need to move products off the shelves helped drive a gain in PC shipments around the world, and led to a record for shipments in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2009, according to technology research firm IDC. The latest figures from IDC said that total PC shipments in the U.S. reached 20.7 million during the fourth quarter, a 24% increase over the same period in 2008. Apple shipped 1.52 million of its Macs during the quarter, a 31% annual increase. David Daoud, a research manager with IDC, said it was no mistake what was behind the gains. "Once again, the consumer market overcame the weak commercial sector to save the quarter," Daoud said. "The vendors responded with new low price points to stimulate demand and face competition." Worldwide, total PC shipments climbed 15.2% to 85.8 million units. H-P held onto the No. 1 position with almost 18 million shipments and a gain of more than 23% from 2008's fourth quarter.
CNBC.com:
- The worst of the residential housing market is over, Equity Group Investment Chairman Sam Zell told CNBC on Wednesday, but fraud was a major cause. "I think we've seen the bottom in housing and we have passed through the worst issues," Zell said. "There are still some rough spots for sure, like foreclosures but I think we will see a housing recovery through 2010." Zell also said the commercial real estate market was different than the residential by the fact that commercials' problems are supply and demand—and that the residential market was over expanded. He also said that he saw five years of no new development in commercial real estate and that the non-institutional commercial market will come apart in 2010.
- Intel(INTC) On Tech's Earnings Deck.
NY Post:
- TV funnyman Jay Leno is "furious" with how NBC has treated him and Conan O'Brien and is reportedly considering walking away from the network. A day after O'Brien threatened to walk away from NBC, Leno is considering doing the same. "They have put Jay in a terrible position. It looks like he is the reason that Conan is now without a job. Jay is a great guy and it's not fair that due to NBC's stupidity he looks like the bad guy," a TV insider told the celebrity blog PopEater today.
Denver Post:
zerohedge:
- The following are the items demanded by Edolphus Towns and the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform from the Federal Reserve. We, for one, can not wait to see what ends up being dug up, seeing how the New York Fed has blatantly "forgotten" about our FOIA request for release of precisely the same data. All documents in the possession, custody, or control of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, relating to AIG credit default swap counterparty payments, the decision to compensate AIGs credit default swap counterparties at par, and public disclosure of the counterparty payments, including: Emails, phone logs, and meeting notes of the following people: Timothy Geithner, Stephen Friedman, Thomas Baxter, and Sarah Dahlgren; Term sheets, including drafts, relating to AIG's payments to its CDS counterparties; and Emails, phone logs, and meeting notes relating to public disclosure of AIG's payments to its CDS counterparties, including disclosure to the SEC. We are particularly happy that Goldman(GS) director Stephen Friedman has been implicated in this subpoena: perhaps we will finally be able to get some definitive evidence of wrongdoing by the Fixed Income sales and trading monopolist, in addition to the metric tons of circumstantial evidence of ongoing wrongdoing already presented.
CNNMoney.com:
Business Insider:
- How The New "Reform" Bill Is Really The Mother Of All Blank-Check Bailouts by Robert Reich.
Business Week:
- Sergey Brin and Larry Page are finally living up to their motto: “Don’t Be Evil.” It turns out that Google Inc.’s(GOOG) founders have a conscience even after helping China censor cyberspace. Yesterday, the most popular Internet search engine said it may shut its Chinese Web site and offices. It’s about time, guys. It was always as distasteful as it was incongruous for the banner-waver of the information economy to help China keep its 1.3 billion people in the dark. In a January 2006 column, for example, I suggested we should be honest and refer to it as CommunistGoogle.com. Better late than never, though. Such a high-level rebuke is important because it shines a spotlight on how much energy governments expend on censoring the Internet. This conversation is about to get more traction than ever. It’s one that Asian officials from Beijing to Jakarta very much need to have for the good of their economies.
- Apple Inc.’s(AAPL) latest iPhone will probably be available as early as June, include a more advanced camera, and may feature a touch-sensitive casing, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Robert Chen said in an interview, without identifying who gave him the information. “Apple’s going to put a lot of innovation, not just on the hardware, but also on the software of the new iPhone,” said Taipei-based Chen, a member of Asia’s top-ranked technology hardware research team. The handset will feature a new plastic casing similar to that used for Apple’s touch-panel Magic Mouse released last year, he said.
Politico:
Rasmussen Reports:
Real Clear Politics:
- Ultimately what we're left with is a GOP that has never managed to get within seven points of a Senate seat in Massachusetts since 1972. And that seven-point defeat came while running a very, very moderate Governor who had won re-election a two years earlier with over 70% of the vote against a Senator who had never been very much beloved by the state. Here, we have a virtually unknown state Senator who is promising to vote against the Democrats' top legislative priority taking on a sitting Attorney General. Probably the closest analogue would be Kerry's 1984 race, when he was a sitting Lieutenant Governor facing off against a conservative millionaire. Kerry won by ten points in the midst of the Reagan landslide. And let's remember, a high-quality candidate in Mississippi (a state about as Republican as Massachusetts is Democratic), running in the best Democratic year in decades lost by ten points. So if Scott Brown makes this a low-single digit race it will be unprecedented - and it will be a big deal.
Search Engine Journal:
- Here we go, latest search market statistics released by Nielsen indicates that Google(GOOG) again rules the search market in December. Google gets 67.3% of all the 9.9 billion searches made last December. That’s actually 6.7 billion shares conducted on Google’s search engine. Following Google far behind are of course Yahoo and Bing getting 14.4% or more than 1.4 billion searches and 9.9% or 986 million searches, respectively. Other searches were made at Ask.com, My Web Search and Comcast. Looking back at Google’s November search market share would show that December’s search number was a big leap from 65.4%. Interestingly, both Yahoo and Bing suffered from a loss in searches from November to December. Obviously some, if not all of these searches went to Google. What’s even more interesting was Bing’s significant drop in search market share from November’s 10.7%.
USAToday:
- The country's top product safety regulator warned parents and caretakers Wednesday to take cheap metal jewelry away from children out of concern they could be exposed to toxic heavy metals such as lead and cadmium. Writing in a blog to be posted Wednesday evening, the chairman of the Consumer Product Safety Commission noted that children who chew, suck on or swallow a bracelet charm or necklace may be endangering their health. "I have a message for parents, grandparents and caregivers: Do not allow young children to be given or to play with cheap metal jewelry, especially when they are unsupervised," wrote Inez Tenenbaum, the chairman of the Consumer Product Safety Commission. "We have proof that lead in children's jewelry is dangerous and was pervasive in the marketplace. To prevent young children from possibly being exposed to lead, cadmium or any other hazardous heavy metal, take the jewelry away." In making the recommendation, Tenenbaum cited an investigation by The Associated Press which reported high cadmium levels in items including bracelet charms from Walmart and Claire's stores. Lab tests conducted for the AP on 103 pieces of low-priced children's jewelry, nearly all exported from China, found 12 items with cadmium content above 10% of the total weight. Several of those shed very high amounts of the metal when analyzed for how much of the toxin a child might be exposed to after swallowing the item. Like lead, cadmium can hinder brain development in young children, according to recent research. It also causes cancer.
Reuters:
- Republican lawmakers slammed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday over multi-million dollar pay packages for executives at mortgage-finance firms Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), which the government took over during the financial crisis. "Awarding millions of dollars in bonuses on the taxpayers' dime is unconscionable," Rep. Jeb Hensarling wrote Geithner in a letter signed by 70 Republicans. Hensarling, a persistent critic of the two government-supported mortgage finance agencies, also said he was troubled at the Treasury's announcement that it would allow unlimited losses at the two firms. Their losses had been capped earlier at $200 billion. Treasury announced both the pay packages and the lifting of the loss cap on Dec. 24. "It is inconceivable to me that, after these institutions have been given access to unlimited taxpayer funds to cover losses they have incurred as a result of their reckless behavior, their top executives would each be awarded multi-million dollar compensation packages," Bachus said in a statement. Bachus also signed Hensarling's letter.
Financial Times:
- Just hours before Google(GOOG) announced late on Tuesday that China-based hackers had attacked its systems last month, China’s cyberwarriors were at work – this time defacing Iranian websites in retaliation for a hacker attack on the pages of a Chinese search engine. If the idea of search engines as battlegrounds in a cyber-war is surprising, the motivations and prowess of Chinese hackers are well established. Unlike most of their counterparts in other countries known for malicious computer activity, especially eastern Europe, Chinese hackers are known for patriotism. They have often gone after targets in Taiwan and, during diplomatic flare-ups, Japan and other neighbors. Commercial concerns for rank-and-file criminals have tended to come later, and some hacking collectives have split up over the issue. The more critical questions are how much of the patriotic activity is directed or encouraged by the government, and how much officials are behind what appear to be commercial intrusions and thefts.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Upgraded (PPG) to Buy, Added to Top Picks Live list, target $71.
- A Return to Double-Digit Growth Rates for US 'Net Advertising, Retail & Travel - 'Net Advertising forecast to grow approx 14% in '10 to $27B(11% of total advertising). Online retail forecast to grow 15% to $154B(over 4% of total retail/7% of addressable retail). And Online Travel forecast to grow 11% to $100B(63% of Total Travel). We see the Internet sector being materially impacted by three broad new growth drivers: 1) SmartPhones and mobile internet usage, especially now that SmartPhones have eclipsed 20% of the mobile installed base 2) the migration of TV ad budgets online, especially now that internet video usage has become well established and 3) MicroTransApptions, which the dramatic growth in social gaming/digital goods businesses are highlighting. Top '10 Stocks Based on Fundamental Outlooks - (GOOG), (AMZN), (AKAM), (NFLX), (PCLN) & (YHOO), based on revenue growth and operating margin trends, core market share gains and product innovation/new revenue streams. Weakest stocks based on '10 fundamental outlooks are (AOL) and (EBAY). Top '10 Stocks Based on Economic/Other Factors - (GOOG) (as cyclical recovery beneficiary with material EPS leverage and international exposure), (AKAM) as cyclical beneficiary, with material EPS leverage and potential for a strategic catalyst), and (AMZN) with what appears to be the sector's best potential for upwards EPS revisions. Top '10 Stocks Based on Valuation - (IACI), (YHOO) and (AKAM). Our Top Large Cap Buys - (GOOG), (AKAM), (PCLN) and (AMZN).
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.25% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.23%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.
Morning Preview
BNO Breaking Global News of Note
Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories
MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (INTC)/.30
- (BGG)/.06
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Import Price Index for December is estimated unch. versus a +1.7% gain in November.
- Advance Retail Sales for December are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.3% gain in November.
- Retail Sales Ex Autos for December are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.2% gain in November.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 437K versus 434K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4750K versus 4802K prior.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for November are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in October.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Treasury's 30-year auction, ECB rate decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventories report, Needham Growth Conference and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.
No comments:
Post a Comment