Friday, May 14, 2010

Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 35.60 -11.25%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +85.94%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -33.83%
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 +241.58%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 118.39 bps -4.13%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 148.80 bps +5.27%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 137.0 bps +8.59%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 299.42 bps -1.62%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 47.0 +4 bps
  • TED Spread 36.0 +1 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .15% unch.
  • Yield Curve 245.0 -4 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $148.30/Metric Tonne -2.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +20.50 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95% -1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
  • Higher: On gains in my Technology, Medical and Biotech long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to (GOOG) long and took profits in another long
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 is hugging the flat line, cutting morning losses, despite another disorderly decline in the euro and meaningful rises in some gauges of credit angst. On the positive side, Gaming, Road&Rail, HMO, Biotech, Medical, Internet and Gold stocks are especially strong, rising .75+%. The Spain sovereign cds is falling -2.4% to 197.0 bps, the Japan sovereign cds is falling --4.5% to 90.0 bps and the Russia sovereign cds is dropping -7.1% to 186.4 bps. The Shanghai Composite gained another +3.5% overnight and European equities stabilized despite the large drop in the euro. On the negative side, Oil Tanker, Oil Service, Energy, Bank and Construction shares are under pressure, falling 1%+. Several important gauges of credit angst are moving higher again despite the bounce in stocks off morning lows. (XLF) has been a bit heavy throughout the day. The bulls have been unable to gain upside traction as a result. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on bargain-hunting, short-covering and diminishing economic fear.

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