Friday, December 31, 2010

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Declining Long-Term Rates, More Economic Optimism, Seasonal Strength, Technical Buying


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.87 +2.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +18.81%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +32.39%
  • NYSE Arms .95 -18.90%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.18 +.04%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 152.60 bps -4.1%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 204.83 bps unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 200.28 -1.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +1 bp
  • TED Spread 18.0 -1 bp
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 270.0 -1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $170.10/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +14.60 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28% -1 bp
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +2 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my Medical and Ag long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades slightly higher despite recent stock gains, some weakness in European equities and China inflation worries. On the positive side, Gaming, Oil Service, Alt Energy, Ag, Telecom, Wireless, I-Banking, HMO, Homebuilding and Road & Rail shares are especially strong, rising more than .5%. Cyclicals are outperforming. Copper is jumping another +1.74% and the S&P GSCI Ag Spot Index is rising +2.28%. The 10-year yield is falling -7 bps to 3.29% despite recent positive economic data, the rise in commodities and "hot" prices paid readings. Put/call readings for the broad market are showing more bearishness today, which is a positive. The Shanghai Composite surged +1.76% last night, finishing at session highs, and is now back above its 200-day moving average. The Belgium sovereign cds is falling -3.17% to 217.93 bps and the UK sovereign cds is declining -5.57% to 72.41 bps, which are also positives. On the negative side, Education and Internet shares are under mild pressure, falling more than .5%. The Euro Financial Sector CDS Index remains near its highest level since mid-June and the Western Europe Sovereign CDS Index is right at a record high, despite the recent bounce in the euro currency. The broad market continues to trade in a healthy fashion as it grinds slowly higher and then consolidates. One of my longs, (AAPL), is resting after its recent run to record highs and +52.8% gain YTD. I still see further significant upside in the shares from current levels longer-term and expect the stock to strongly outperform the S&P 500 again next year. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on seasonal strength, short-covering, technical buying, lower long-term rates, less financial sector pessimism, more economic optimism, buyout speculation and investment manager performance angst.

3 comments:

muckdog said...

Thanks for doing what you do. I read all the time, but don't comment often.

2010 was great. 2011 looks interesting from here!

Gary said...

Thanks for reading Muckdog and good luck in the new year.

Anonymous said...

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