Thursday, February 10, 2011

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast Unrest, Earnings Disappointments, Profit-Taking, Eurozone Debt Worries

Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Medical, Biotech and Tech long positions and emerging markets short positions
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades about even, despite Mideast unrest, rising long-term rates, emerging markets inflation fears, tech sector earnings disappointments and rising eurozone debt angst. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Education, Wireless, Disk Drive, Oil Service, Energy, Oil Tanker and Coal shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. "Growth" stocks are outperforming "value" shares. The Transports found support at the 50-day moving average and are surging convincingly higher today. The Egypt sovereign cds is falling -4.88% to 337.62 bps. Oil is falling -.16%, Lumber is rising +.62% and Copper is gaining +.43%. The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is rising another +4.72% to +66.60, which is the highest level since Sept. 1, 2009. Networking stocks are surging despite (CSCO)/(AKAM) weakness, which is also a big positive. On the negative side, Homebuilding, Internet, Hospital and Gold shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.0%. The Hungary sovereign cds is up +2.37% to 291.33 bps, the Emerging Markets CDS Index is rising +2.19% to 217.48 bps and the Euro Financial Sector CDS Index is rising +3.92% to 133.17 bps. Moreover, the Saudi sovereign cds is rising +16.01% to 125.0 bps. Emerging market equity indices continue to exhibit very poor technical action. The major US averages continue to display exceptional resilience as the bears were unable to gain meaningful traction with potential negative catalysts, once again. Even when market leader (AAPL) was plunging temporarily on an old report and a "sloppy seller", the major averages held firm. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on earnings optimism, US fund inflows, buyout speculation and falling energy prices.

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