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Monday, May 18, 2015

Tuesday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 11:41 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  
  • Islamic State Victory Threatens to Unravel Obama’s Iraq Strategy. Islamic State’s seizure of the Iraqi city of Ramadi threatens to unravel President Barack Obama’s strategy for defeating the Sunni extremist group without sending U.S. ground troops back to Iraq. Ramadi’s fall, two days after a U.S. general said Islamic State was “losing” in Iraq, is the militants’ biggest success since they swept across northern Iraq a year ago. Deploying car bombs and executing dozens of pro-government soldiers and civilians, the group raised its black banner over the capital of Anbar province as government forces fled. 
  • Greek Leaders Say Deal Is Within Reach Amid Doubts by Creditors. Greek leaders expressed optimism a deal to unlock bailout funds is within reach, in the face of continuing warnings by creditors that the country has yet to comply with the terms of its emergency loans. “We are very close” to an agreement, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said in an interview late Monday with Greece’s Star TV Channel. “I’d say it is a matter of one week.” Earlier Monday, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras had told Greek industrialists that “we are now at the final stretch before striking a mutually beneficial agreement, after long and painful negotiations.”
  • Which Stock Market Is Scarier: U.S. or China? It’s scary stock-market ratio day! Bloomberg’s Lu Wang and Jennifer Kaplan point out that economist James Tobin’s Q ratio -- companies’ market value divided by the replacement cost of their assets -- is higher for U.S. companies “than any time other than the Internet bubble and the 1929 peak.” Meanwhile, FT Alphaville tells of a Macquarie report on margin lending in China, which now accounts for 8.9 percent of the combined free float of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. That “could already be the highest level of margins vs free float in market history.” What are we to make of these ominous-sounding measures? Something. Definitely something. 
  • Most Asia Shares Gain as Bonds Extend Global Slide; Wheat Climbs. Most Asian shares rose following a record-setting day in the U.S., as bonds in the region tracked a resumption of selling in international markets. Wheat extended gains near a five-week high, and crude oil rallied. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.2 percent by 11:13 a.m. in Tokyo, with five stocks climbing for every three that fell.
  • Shale Poised to Pummel Another Market as U.S. LNG Plants Arrive. The U.S. is about to change the global LNG market forever. When the first tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from shale fields leaves the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana in December, it will turn consumers into traders with more bargaining power. That will transform a market dominated by long-term contracts into one where spot trading gains prominence, similar to crude oil.
  • Funds Seen Driving China Commodity Trade Boom Defying Slowdown. Chinese hedge funds are helping drive a commodity-derivatives trading boom in the world’s biggest energy, grains and metals consumer that’s defying the worst economic growth in 25 years. Trading volumes across on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, China’s biggest commodities bourse, surged 31 percent last year while activity on exchanges in Zhengzhou and Dalian grew by 29 and 10 percent, respectively. The expansion, compared with a 3.5 percent increase on the London Metal Exchange, is being driven by a growing number of investment funds nurtured by new regulations, according to Hu Yuyue, a professor at Beijing Technology and Business University.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Islamic State Solidifies Foothold in Libya to Expand Reach. Extremist group has sent money, trainers and fighters. Islamic State leaders in Syria have sent money, trainers and fighters to Libya in increasing numbers, raising new concerns for the U.S. that the militant group is gaining traction in its attempts to broaden its reach and expand its influence. In recent months, U.S. military officials said, Islamic State has solidified its foothold in Libya as it searches for ways to capitalize on rising popularity among extremist groups around the...
  • Behind Apple’s Move to Shelve TV Plans. Apple had dropped its TV plans, but investor Carl Icahn sees the firm entering the market next year. 
  • The Poverty Preening of Professor Obama. The president once again suggests the moral inferiority of those who disagree with him.  
  • Islamic State Is Winning in Iraq. U.S.-led airstrikes are failing to deter the Islamist militants. Here’s what must be done to defeat them.
Fox News:
  • ISIS capture of Ramadi renews concerns about US troop pullout, weapons left behind. (video) The Islamic State’s capture of the Iraqi city of Ramadi is sparking renewed criticism of Obama administration policies in the region -- from the decision to withdraw virtually all U.S. troops in 2011 to the current anti-ISIS strategy that relies mostly on airstrikes. The fall Sunday of Ramadi, just 70 miles from Baghdad, marks the second time in roughly a year that the extremist group has taken control of a major Iraqi city -- after the United States spent nearly eight years at war in the country.
CNBC:
  • The stocks top hedge funds love.
  • Sharing a buddy's Netflix?(NFLX) You're not alone.
Zero Hedge:
  • Obama Just Called This "Rotting, Decaying Hellhole" A Symbol Of "Promise For The Nation".
  • Why The Little Liesman Econ Achievers "Just Love Keynes". (video)
  • The Last Two Times This Happened, Stocks Crashed. (graph)
  • Volumeless VIXtermination Fuels Stock-Buying Frenzy To Record Highs. (graph)
  • City Secure? Baltimore Is Averaging 1.3 Murders Per Day Since Riot.
  • Graphing The Evolution Of The World's Debt Addiction. (graph)
  • Peak Picasso - Did The Art Market Just Flash A "Sell" Signal For Stocks. (graph)
  • Puerto Rico Faces Default, Government Shutdown On July 1.
  • 79 Members Of Congress Have Been In Office For At Least 20 Years.
Business Insider:
  • The US Navy just turned seawater into fuel.
  • The fall of Ramadi exposes Obama’s weak ISIS.
  • The oil price war has just begun.
  • Markets are no longer on speaking terms with fundamentals.
  • Urban Outfitters(URBN) is getting destroyed.
  • The State Department will wait until January 2016 to release Hillary Clinton's emails.
  • China's economic party is 'running out of booze'.
Reuters: 
  • Brazil's steelmaker Usiminas to cut output due to lower demand.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (DKS)/.53
  • (HD)/1.15
  • (RRGB)/.88
  • (SSI)/-.28
  • (TJX)/.66
  • (WMT)/1.05
  • (ADI)/.72
  • (ADSK)/.28
  • (CSC)/1.20
  • (ETSY)/.00
  • (PLAY)/.37
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for April are estimated to rise to 1015K versus 926K in March.
  • Building Permits for April are estimated to rise to 1064K versus 1039K in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Yellen at Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting, Fed's Dudley speaking, UK CPI report, US weekly retail sales reports, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials conference, JPMorgan Homebuilding/Building Products conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Telecom conference, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Financial Services conference, (DDD) analyst event and the (HAE) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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