Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Surging Eurozone/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Emerging Market Currency Fears, Oil Decline, Commodity/Gaming Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.9 +18.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.85 -.97%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.23 +2.86%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 65.83 +2.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 37.0 -53.75%
  • Total Put/Call 1.27 +41.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 -7.72% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 114.22 +3.64%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,982.0 +8.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.65 +6.1%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 19.71 +7.56%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 80.25 +3.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 405.01 +2.44%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 122.25 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.0 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.56 -.91%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .26% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 116.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $41.61/Metric Tonne -2.73%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.1 -9.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.80 -2.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.40 -1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.33% -7.0 basis points
  • 23.9% chance of Fed rate hike at March 16 meeting, 26.7% chance at April 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -201 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -254 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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