Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Oil Reversal, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.34 -2.03%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.80 -.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.47 -1.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.48 +1.18%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +36.84%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -11.36%
  • NYSE Arms .40 -69.03
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 100.68 +.17%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,611.0 -31.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.50 -1.58%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.30 -1.57%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 72.97 -.08%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 353.83 +.28%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.12 +.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.25 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.29 +.37%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .31% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 99.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.50/Metric Tonne +2.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.10 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -67.50 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.10 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52% +3.0 basis points
  • 22.6% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 38.1% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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