Thursday, March 31, 2016

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Road & Rail/Agriculture Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.97 +3.02%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.87 +.49%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.49 +.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.93 +.68%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 -2.22%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -21.43%
  • NYSE Arms 1.26 +57.34% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.17 +1.15%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,451.0 -1.67%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.41 -.67%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 25.72 +1.30%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.59 +6.19%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 288.05 +1.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.79 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 44.25 +3.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.0 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.67 +.64%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 107.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.75/Metric Tonne -.79%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.20 -1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.30 +11.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.60 +1.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.63% -2.0 basis points
  • 20.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 32.8% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +18 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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