Monday, March 28, 2016

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.1 +2.37%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.66 -.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.79 +.26%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.16 -1.25%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .82 -21.15%
  • NYSE Arms 1.20 +43.40
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.63 -1.04%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,431.0 -4.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.90 +.79%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.06 -.79%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.70 +.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 292.70 -1.62%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.51 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 34.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.50 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.44 +.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .27% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 100.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.75/Metric Tonne -1.08%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.90 +5.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.90 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.50 +4.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56% -2.0 basis points
  • 38.0% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 49.1% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -154 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating n/a open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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