Wednesday, April 06, 2016

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Bounce, Short-Covering, Biotech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -5.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.84 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.87 +.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.73 -3.38%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +52.2%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -17.7%
  • NYSE Arms .91 -13.09
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.39 -.29%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,382.0 -8.2%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.95 +1.89%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.61 +.24%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.60 -2.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 299.68 -.52%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.0 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 40.5 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.92 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .23% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 102.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $54.75/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.60 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.60 +4.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.30 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.59% -1.0 basis point
  • 19.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 30.6% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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