Thursday, January 25, 2018

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlooks, Reversal Lower in Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Medical/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.8 +3.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.26 +.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.26 +3.5%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.72 -.91%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +42.6%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -7.32%
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +101.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.39 -.11%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 295.0 -3.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 41.99 -.47%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.25 +3.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.56 -.24%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 113.96 +.57%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.71 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.50 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.5 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 76.51 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.42% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 54.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 73.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.91%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.10 -6.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.30 +.2 basis point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.20 -2.7 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -1.0 basis point
  • 88.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 89.0% chance at May 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -54 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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