Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Worries, Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Utility/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.58 +3.11%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.23 +.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.64 +.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.16 +4.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +24.7%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -10.3%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -33.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.70 -.19%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 396.0 -.63%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.72 +.22%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 233.5 -10.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.67 +1.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 199.06 +1.06%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.69 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.75 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.61 -.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.20% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 25.75 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.25 USD/Metric Tonne +.38%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.2 +1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.30 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.1 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.16 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 100.0% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -80 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -19 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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