Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 29.0 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.42 +.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -1.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.58 -1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -75.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 +6.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -35.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 85.82 -4.19%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 1,100.02 -2.98%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.52 -5.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 210.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.36 -2.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 309.0 -3.8%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.03 +.58%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 25.75 -1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +2.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  101.0 -4.0 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 64.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.29 +.87%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 52.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.40 USD/Metric Tonne -1.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -92.30 +1.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -295.20 -3.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.9 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.16 +1.0 basis point
  • 99.3% chance of no change at July 29th meeting, 99.3% chance of no change at Sept. 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +105 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -44 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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