Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Rising China/Taiwan Tensions, Fed Taper Worries, Healthcare/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -1.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,683.0 +81.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.94 +.31%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.72 -.46%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.5 +2.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 114.0  +13.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -26.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.6 -.11%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 448.03 -.40%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.36 -.54%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.72 -3.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.20 +.71%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.35 -.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 6.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  76.0 -1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.53 -.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  • Yield Curve 106.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 143.260 USD/Metric Tonne -9.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -36.1 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.1 -2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.4 +1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 293 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +6/100K people
  • 55% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -138 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -7 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

No comments: