Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -1.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .51%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.8 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.2 -1.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.9 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -28.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.55 +20.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.3 +1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 318.75 +.86%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346.0 +7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.3 +1.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 262.0 +.61%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.9 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.97 +2.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 +.12%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 797.0 +25.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.7 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour -11.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.4 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -578.1 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.7 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) -6.0%  +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.74 +.03:  Growth Rate +8.2% unch., P/E 19.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.20% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.61 +.22: Growth Rate +46.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .44 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .17 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -78.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.63% -28.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.03% -20.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 54.6%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 52.7%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -99 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long