Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.5 -4.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .48%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.4 +.01%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.99 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.23%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.7 -3.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +6.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.28 +82.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.39 -1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 309.71 +.38%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 363.0 +24
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.0 -1.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 271.9 +.47%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.2 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 202.17 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.91 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 23.0 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 923.0 +57.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 76.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.8 euros/megawatt-hour +6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.5 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.1 -3.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.1 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) -5.8%  -.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 238.88 +.04:  Growth Rate +8.7% unch., P/E 18.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +25.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 246.92 +.26: Growth Rate +48.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +17.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .26 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -73.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.57% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% -8.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.66% -16.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 61.4%(+5.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 56.1%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long