Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Meme Stock Frenzy, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.9 -2.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .33 -52.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.4 -.06%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.1 +.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 -1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 11.6 -5.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 161.0 +14.0
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -6.8%

• NYSE Arms .98 +38.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$27.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.5 +.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 281.4 +.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 284 -5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.7 +.49%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.4 -.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.8 -.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.71 +.19%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.2 -2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 +.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.5 basis points +2.75 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 785.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.09%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.0 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 43.9 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.3 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +40.2% -.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 249.85 +.07:  Growth Rate +12.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.9 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.35 +.12: Growth Rate +29.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -36.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 56.0% +.6 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% +4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 61.0%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 48.2%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +280 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long