Tuesday, April 01, 2025

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, US Economic Data, Trade War Uncertainty, Airline/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.11%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.5 euros/megawatt-hour +4.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -3.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.0 -6.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.44 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.4% unch., P/E 20.3 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.46 +.19: Growth Rate +21.0% unch., P/E 27.9 +.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.35 -2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -3.7% -90.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.7% +1.8 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 62.5% (-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 44.7%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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