Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.05%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.11%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.5 euros/megawatt-hour +4.4%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -3.6 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.0 -6.4 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.0 -1.0 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.44 +.07: Growth Rate +13.4% unch., P/E 20.3 +.3
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.56% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.46 +.19: Growth Rate +21.0% unch., P/E 27.9 +.7
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.35 -2.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -3.7% -90.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.7% +1.8 percentage points
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% +2.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -6.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 62.5% (-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 44.7%(+2.1 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +26 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -38 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
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