Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.01 -.20%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.15% unch.
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.62% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.9 -5.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.5 -1.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +22.1% -19.2 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.42 +.10: Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 21.9 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% +1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 516.92 +.29: Growth Rate +25.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.2 -.4
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 -3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.43 +2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 unch.
- US Yield Curve 66.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.3% +.2 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
- Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 46.0% (unch.) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.8%(unch.) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -390 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -86 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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