Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Further Mideast War De-Escalation, Falling Oil/Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Healthcare/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.4 +1.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.05 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.0 -.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 145.6 -.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 65.4 +3.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.6 -1.0

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.3 -1.8

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.6 +.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.0 +1.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(168 of 500 reporting) +65.5% -4.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.64 +.24:  Growth Rate +29.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.94% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +329.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 920.28 +.88: Growth Rate +77.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 -5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.2 -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.1 euros/megawatt-hour -3.7%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.1% +.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.5% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.60% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.75 -6.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 55.6% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 46.5%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +260 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +6 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long