Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Meaningful Data Center Construction Slowdown Skepticism, Short-Covering, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.2 -3.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.53 +.33% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .20 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.70 -4.3% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.96 -3.3% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.0 +1.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 84.8 -.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.5 -.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -1.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.8 -1.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(447 of 500 reporting) +26.4% -1.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 416.08 +.88:  Growth Rate +26.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,105.87 +2.92: Growth Rate +64.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 15.7 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +19.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.86 +.72%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 79.4 euros/megawatt-hour -7.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.2% +1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.5% +10.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.87% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 -15.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 68.7% (+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 42.4%(+6.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,250 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +113 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +40 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +277 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long