Monday, May 11, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @ChildrensHD
  • Jeffrey Tucker exposes the dark truth behind Covid policies: It was all conditioning. “The whole point of the lockdowns was to prepare the population for the shots.” “To keep people apart so they wouldn't acquire natural immunity.” “To preserve immunological variety as long as possible.” “That's the reason for the masks.” “For the distancing.” “For the closures.” “That was the reason for the banning of therapeutics.” “Why you couldn't get Ivermectin… or Hydroxychloroquine.” “They were taken off the market.” “The reason?” “They wanted one solution.” “One solution only, which was a shot that had been indemnified against all harms.” “So it didn't need to be safety tested because even if it wasn't a safe shot, it wouldn't matter.” “The companies were not held liable for it.” “If you got sick and died, survivors couldn’t sue Pfizer or Moderna.” “There's a liability shield for them.” “They had a lot of money to be made.” “A lot of shots to be distributed.” (video)
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @BowesChay
  • @EricLDaugh
  • HUGE NEWS: Costa Rica’s new President Laura Fernandez is going RED PILL MODE — plans to launch a mega prison and REMOVE judges just like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. “[Prison] won’t do any good if the judges keep releasing dangerous criminals!” (video)
  • @HealthRanger
  • @NicHulscher
  • U.S. AND U.K. ARE ACTIVELY PREPARING PLANS TO MASS VACCINATE POULTRY AGAINST H5N1 BIRD FLU. Their leaky vaccines could contaminate our food supply, fuel dangerous mutations, and spark a human pandemic. This must NEVER be allowed to happen.
  • LESS THAN 24 HOURS REMAIN TO CHARGE ANTHONY FAUCI FOR THE WORST COVER-UP IN PUBLIC HEALTH HISTORY. We have IRREFUTABLE EVIDENCE that he 100% LIED UNDER OATH claiming NIH never funded GoF at Wuhan and ORDERED destruction of evidence! MILLIONS of innocent people have been killed. Among the MANY crimes, this is by far the EASIEST TARGET. However, there are NO statutes of limitations for TREASON and CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY. (video)
  • @JohnnyMaga
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @JoshHall2024
  • BREAKING: RINO GEORGIA GOVERNOR KEMP, SECRETARY OF STATE RAFFENSPERGER ATTEMPTING TO BLOCK FULTON COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS FROM TURNING OVER VOTER DATA TO DOJ.
  • @themagaking
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 +.75 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.25 .75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%. 
  • Crude Oil 99.05/bbl. +1.0% 
  • Gold 4,735.7 USD/t oz. +.17%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.18%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.52 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 119.0 +.3%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.42% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.81% +2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.70%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.50%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 +.4%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.9 -2.2% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.13 -4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.0 -.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.4 +.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 63.0 -.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.7 -1.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.4 +1.7
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.9 -9
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.9 -3.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(447 of 500 reporting) +25.3% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 353.68 +1.53:  Growth Rate +27.6% +.5 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.42% +6.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 852.97 +2.54: Growth Rate +115.4% +.6 percentage point, P/E 20.4 +.5 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +14.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 185.0 +2.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour +5.6% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.0% -.8 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% +6.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.10 +10.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 93.6% (+6.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 89.2%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +440 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +30 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gambling -3.0% 2) Retail -3.0% 3) Computer Services -2.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • APH, PAX, ANET, ONT, PUBM, HE, TDS, MELI, DSP, VIV, TMDX, SBH, AVTX, ISRG, ALHC, ZTS, NEXA, AORT, WHR, ELF, CELH, SHAK, PAHC, DBX, DCBO and PSIX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DGXX 2) SE 3) SHAK 4) SERV 5) INOD
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DRCT 2) ALIT 3) PRKS 4) DG 5) CWH
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) MISL 2) XLV 3) SOXX 4) IGV 5) XLE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +5.5% 2) Nuclear +4.4% 3) Gold & Silver +4.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MRAM, GSIT, BZH, WYFI, NVTS, VCX, BW, POET, DRTS, DXYZ, LQDA, INOD, AAOI, FCEL, HIMX, CRCL, AEVA, TH, LITE, ALMU, IONQ, UMAC, RVI, RKLB, RDW, COHR, LUNR, OUST, ADEA, ASST, ASIX, P, BE, BELO, ASTS, AMPX, HYMC, LASR, GLW, IX, APLD, LPTH, EXK, SOLS, WOLF, HL, MLTX, OKLO, PRIM, PRCT, SMTC, B, NOK, RGTI, AEHR, QBTS, DSGN, SVM, DSGN, SHAZ, BLLN, URGN, ACMR, VOYG, ZLAB, ALM, ELVA, QCOM, MU, GLIBK, EQPT, NNE, QUIK, INFQ, AG, PCT, FSLR, CRK, PDFS, SITM, STX, CRK, MDA, LINC, KGS, WLDN, FBRX, SIMO, QUBT, LMB, HIMS, SARO, UUUU, LMB, SONY, JKS, FN, AMN, KYIV, SPIR, AKAM, CDRE, PSLV, CDRE, PLNT, PUMP, INR, LI, EIKN, PZZA, LWLG, AKAM, SION, FOXA, DQ, RAL, AAMI, HUT, ETN, UNIT, PAR, ASYS, AGO, XIFR, AMBA, CMP, ASYS, AIP, SMMT, CLSK, CAMT, MNDY, PTCT, CAPR, VECO and INSM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SONY 2) GSIT 3) MRAM 4) AEVA 5) BTBT 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LITE 2) RKLB 3) BZH 4) DRTS 5) LQDA
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) DRAM 2) FTXN 3) SMH 4) XLI 5) IYW
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AZN)/2.49
  • (CAMT)/.68
  • (AG)/.31
  • (ONON)/.27
  • (ZBRA)/4.25 
After the Close: 
  • (BGS)/.05
  • (KRMN)/.12
  • (NXT)/.92
  • (OKLO)/-.19 
Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April is estimated to rise to 96.1 versus 95.8 in March.  

8:30 am EST

  • The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.9% gain in March.
  • The Core CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in March. 

2:00 pm EST

  • The Federal Budget Deficit for April is estimated at $219.0B versus -$164.1B in March. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, ADP weekly employment change, real avg. weekly earnings YoY for April, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, WASDE report, API weekly crude oil stock report, BMO Chemicals Conference, Canaccord Genuity Nuclear Nexus Fission/Fusion Forum, BofA Healthcare Conference, BofA Industrials/Transports/Airlines Key Leaders Conference, (MTZ) investor day, (LMT) annual meeting, (MMM) annual meeting, (NEM) annual meeting, (COP) annual meeting, (CSX) annual meeting, (CMI) annual meeting, (KNX) annual meeting, (KTOS) annual meeting, (DKNG) annual meeting, (WERN) annual meeting and the BofA Metals/Mining/Steel Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +10.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.1 +8.9
  • 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
  • 42.0% of Issues Advancing, 55.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .97 -48.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$20.5M
  • 126 New 52-Week Highs, 68 New Lows
  • 55.9% (-2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 53.3 -3.3
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 25.0% -23.0 percentage points
  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 42.0% -3.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 28.0% +6.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 119.0 +.9%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 85.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 458.25 -6.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.1 +.5%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.6 +1.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.4 -26.0%
  • Vix 18.0 +4.8%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -4.0%

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @OunkaOnX
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @RenzTom
  • @LaraLogan
  • @TheSCIF
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @VenkatP135
  • @disclosetv
  • @RedactedNews
  • @Real_RobN
  • @BrettWeinstein
  • @HealthRanger
  • @NicHulscher
  • @DiligentDenizen
  • @copesint
  • @jackprandelli
  • THE WORLD RUNS THROUGH 8 STRAITS. Trade, Oil, LNG, Military power. Key chokepoints: • Malacca ~25% of global traded goods. • Hormuz ~25% of global oil, ~⅓ of LNG. • Singapore ~50% of global seaborne trade. • Gibraltar Atlantic Mediterranean. • Bosphorus Black Sea outlet. • Magellan Atlantic Pacific backup. • Bering Arctic gateway. • Bass Australian passage. These are pressure points.
  • @RealDrJaneRuby
  • @HormuzLetter
  • @Oceanbreeze473
  • Kids that go missing everyyear: Spain 20,000. Australia 25,000. France 39,000. Brazil 40,000. Mexico 45,000. Canada 50,000. Germany 100,000. United Kingdom 230,000. United States 800,000.
  • @FurkanGozukara
  • @ForgiatoBlow47
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @catturd
  • Report: New polling shows that Bill Cassidy wouldn’t make the runoff in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican Primary. Julia Letlow: 41.6%. John Fleming: 29.6%. Bill Cassidy: 19.6%. Undecided: 7.5%. Mark Spencer: 1.7%. Another RINO is about to have to learn to code.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%. 
  • Crude Oil 99.0/bbl. +3.8% 
  • Gold 4,694.2 USD/t oz. -.8%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.17%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.56 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.6 +.6%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.39% +3.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.