Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China/Hong Kong Tensions, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Agriculture/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.1 +11.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.61 -.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.65 +3.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.57 +11.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 -11.4%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.20 +20.0%

• NYSE Arms 2.23 +21.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.45 +4.3%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 398.0 +1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.45 +2.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.5 -8.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.94 +3.53%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 200.69 +12.8%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.81 +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread -.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 19.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -1.75 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.0 -.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.97% -2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve 6.5 -3.25 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 87.18 USD/Metric Tonne -1.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.8 +4.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.80 +1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.7 +4.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 -5.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -414 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -248 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -69 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.6% 2) Agriculture -2.2% 3) Social Media -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GGAL, BMA, DESP, YPF, PAM, CCU, DXC, TSG, MELI, NKTR, TEO, TX, HSC, TRWH and QNST

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JNK 2) STT 3) APA 4) VRAY 5) DXC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LTHM 2) SNRC 3) UBER 4) VNTR 5)OXY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.5% 2) Paper +.7% 3) Defense +.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IHRT, VGLT, RBA, FTCH, KLXE, AMAG, AMGN, AGS, SEDG, ROKU, PRSC, AXGN, NVRO, VAPO, CORR, CYRX, PUYI, HRC, APPN, MAG, NEU, SYY, BECN, SOLY and MAG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LQD 2) EXEL 3) DXC 4) APA 5) EWH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ROKU 2) NWSA 3) AGS 4) AMGN 5) SYY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 1 Sector Rising, 10 Sectors Declining
• 28.9% of Issues Advancing, 68.4% Declining
• 109 New 52-Week Highs, 181 New Lows
• 52.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.3%
• Vix 19.7 +9.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.15 +15.0%
• TRIN/Arms 2.19 +19.0%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Is Making Xi’s Superpower 2050 Plan Tougher by the Day.  

• Tear Gas, Petrol Bombs Mar 10th Weekend of Hong Kong Protests.

• China Is Saving Stimulus for Trade War Winter as Yuan Weakens.  

• Italy’s Salvini Tells Richard Gere to Take Stranded Migrants to Hollywood on his Jet. 

• Stocks to Dip After U.S. Drop as Caution Reigns. Stocks in Asia looked set to kick off the week on a cautious note after U.S. equities retreated Friday amid trade-war concerns. Futures pointed to a lower start in Hong Kong and Australia, though trading may be limited in much of the Asia-Pacific region with markets shut on Monday in Japan, Singapore, India, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. The yen edged higher, extending moves seen at the end of last week as President Donald Trump said that planned trade talks with China could be called off. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.7% on Friday. Futures gained 0.1% as of 6:38 a.m. in Hong Kong. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 0.2%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.3%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Dollar’s Dire Gains, Central Bank Pleas, China Stimulus: Eco Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• UPS Bets on Amazon, Despite Risk.

• Investors Ponder Negative Bond Yields.

• The U.S. Abandoned Iraq. Don’t Repeat History in Afghanistan.

• California Fostered America’s Tech Industry. It Is Becoming a Great Adversary.

• The Federal Minimum Wage Doesn’t Really Matter Anymore.

• Hong Kong Protesters Battle Police, Despite Beijing’s Warnings.

• Russia Protests Present New Challenge to Putin’s Dominance.

• Biden’s Gaffes Fuel Anxiety About Potency Against Trump.

Fox News:

• JUSTIN HASKINS: Socialism could flip this state -- and election -- to Trump.

• 2020 Dems make costly promises on student loans, from free tuition to canceling all debt.

• Epstein’s removal from suicide watch an affront to his accusers, critics say.

CNBC:

• Amazon’s(AMZN) quest for constant growth is not leaving it with many friends — except for Wall Street.

• Why Boeing investors can look to Chipotle as a path through crisis and back to big stock returns.

• Goldman Sachs(GS) cuts growth forecast as trade war triggers recession fears.

Zero Hedge:        

• Chinese Banks No Longer Trust One Another As Repo Rates Skyrocket.

• Hong Kong Police Fire Tear Gas On Protesters In 10th Week Of Demonstrations.

• Former MCC Inmate Says Epstein Suicide Was 'Impossible'.

• Clinton Mentioned In Epstein Documents Just Hours Before Alleged 'Suicide'.

• In First Footage Of Kashmir Protests Under Lockdown, Live Fire Rings Out.

• The Tyranny Of The Socially Self-Righteous - A Coercive Green New Deal.

• Denmark's 3rd Largest Bank Is Now Paying People To Take Out A Mortgage.

• Great Migration: Wealthy Gen X-ers Are Moving To These States.

• Two Tiered System Of Justice: Top FBI Officials Escape Prosecution, While Others Pay Heavy Price.

• Like "Crack Cocaine For CFOs" - Aussie Construction Giant Collapses After Hidden-Debt Loophole Exposed.

• Attention Millennials: New Study Reveals E-Scooters Aren't As Green As They Seem.

• Federal Judges Are Waging War On The Fourth Amendment.

• JPMorgan: The Fed Will Need To Restart QE Soon.

Business Insider:

• Federal prosecutors confirm that the Epstein sex trafficking investigation will continue despite his death.

• Since 1990, Epstein has donated $147,426 to various Democrats and $18,250 to Republicans, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. 

• Tesla(TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said he supports Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang, calling universal basic income 'Obviously needed'. 

• The 10 biggest video games launching this holiday, from an all-new 'Pokémon' to the hotly-anticipated 'Death Stranding'.

• 12 former Facebook insiders who ditched the company and are now outspoken critics.

Vox:

• The conspiracy theories about the Clintons and Jeffrey Epstein’s death, explained.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 50.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.23 -.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.49%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (GOLD)/.09

• (SYY)/1.07

• (TSG)/.47

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• The monthly budget statement for July is estimated at -$120.0B versus -$8.5B in June.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan CPI report, Cowen Communications Infrastructure Summit, BTIG Biotech Conference and the Wells Fargo Tech Services Forum could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.