Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
Zero Hedge:
 Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
The Epoch Times:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.0 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.25 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.17 +.01%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,541.0 +36.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.05 -.41%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ABT)/1.21
  • (APH)/.64
  • (ANTM)/5.12
  • (T)/.76
  • (ADP)/1.63
  • (BA)/-.19
  • (GLW)/.52
  • (FCX)/.91
  • (GD)/3.37
  • (HES)/.75
  • (KMB)/1.25
  • (KNX)/1.43
  • (NDAQ)/1.77
  • (NSC)/3.04
  • (OSK)/.84
  • (PGR)/1.01
After the Close:
  • (CNMD)/1.03
  • (CCI)/1.73
  • (EW)/.55
  • (INTC)/.91
  • (LRCX)/8.50
  • (LSTR)/2.86
  • (LVS)/-.22
  • (LEVI)/.40
  • (RJF)/1.76
  • (STX)/2.36
  • (NOW)/1.43
  • (TER)/1.29
  • (TSLA)/2.36
  • (URI)/6.69
  • (VRTX)/3.29
  • (WHR)/5.93
  • (XLNX)/1.02
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$96.0B versus -$98.0B in Nov.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.4% gain in Nov.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a +2.0% gain in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to rise to 760K versus 744K the prior week.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +166,440 barrels versus a +515,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,947,110 barrels versus a +5,873,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,492,890 barrels versus a -1,431,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.31% versus a -.3% decline prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leaves the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 0.00-.25%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia Export/Import Prices, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, TD Securities Mining Conference and the (KMI) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Troop Involvement in Ukraine Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Commodity/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.06 +.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,577.0 +288.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.58 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.4 +2.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0  +24.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .85 -28.6%
  • NYSE Arms .92 +24.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 +.45%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.99 +1.6%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.77 -1.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.88 +.51%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 215.05 -.64%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.95 -.54%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 -4.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 7.75 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.0 -1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.17 +.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 75.75 +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 137.50 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.80 +2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.1 +3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.3 +3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +4.0 basis points
  • 6.6%(-7.3 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 3.2%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 1,485 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 86%(-6.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -88/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -8.6%(-.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +194 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +66 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my commodity sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -2.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Internet -2.8% 2) Semis -2.5% 3) Alt Energy -2.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • JBL, INBX, PVH, NFLX, MLM, LOB, GE, NEE, ACCD, CVNA and AJRD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BLL 2) GE 3) AXP 4) HBAN 5) IBM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AJRD 2) GE 3) PLAN 4) SHOP 5) OSH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +3.1% 2) Energy +2.6% 3) Steel +.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BALY, MDRX, HOPE, AXP, PETS, APA, HAL, ZION, CHK, PCAR, OLPX and BROS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MGI 2) LQD 3) CTXS 4) LYV 5) HLT
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MDRX 2) CAPR 3) JUPW 4) HOPE 5) PCAR

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +20.6% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
  • 22.8% of Issues Advancing, 73.4% Declining
  • 4 New 52-Week Highs, 116 New Lows
  • 36.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,387.0 +98.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,443.0 -1.35%
  • Vix 32.8 +9.5%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -24.4%
  • TRIN/Arms .99 +33.8%

Monday, January 24, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.50 +1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.25 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.12 -.02%. 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,289.0 -480.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.2 +4.0%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.8%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.0%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.35%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (MMM)/2.02
  • (AXP)/1.83
  • (ADM)/1.36
  • (CTXS)/1.07
  • (GE)/.82
  • (JNJ)/2.12
  • (LMT)/7.14
  • (PCAR)/1.31
  • (PII)/2.03
  • (RTX)/1.02
  • (VZ)/1.28
After the Close:
  • (BXP)/1.53
  • (CNI)/1.53
  • (COF)/5.19
  • (FFIV)/2.78
  • (MRTN)/.26
  • (MSFT)/2.32
  • (TXN)/1.96
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.1% gain in Oct. 
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.93% versus a +.92% gain in Oct.
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 111.4 versus 115.8 in Dec.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Jan. is estimated to fall to 14.0 versus 16.0 in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German IFO Guidance, weekly US retail sales reports, 5Y T-Note auction and the RW Baird Vehicle Tech/Mobility Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Technical Selling, Tech/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 35.3 +21.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,288.0 -480.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.77 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 +3.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.3 +4.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 78.0  -17.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.26 -4.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.2 -19.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.11 +1.47%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 408.32 +4.2%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.63 +4.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.40 +1.94%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 219.0 +2.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.10 +.31%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 9.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.75 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.05 -.61%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .16% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 73.25 -2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 132.30 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.10 -18.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.2 +17.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.9 +2.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
  • 13.9%(+7.3 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 7.1%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 1,485 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 86%(-6.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -88/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -8.0%(-5.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -588 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -144 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +67 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -2.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -4.2% 2) Video Gaming -4.0% 3) Airlines -3.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DIS, HTGC, BLK, ISRG, SUN, OKTA, BX, TVTX, PFLT, SIL, HOOD, ECC, FTNT, CSQ, MSTR, RA, MAIN, CLM, RQI, USAC, NOTV, AWI, PECO, ETV, LMND, CLMT, CRF, SIVB, SSSS, AFRM, NVDA, DISH, TSP, PACK, EXPI, ENVX, SQ, ACVA, AB, SNAP, PLTR, FLGT, PLUG, SBNY, RDFN, NFLX, COIN, HAYW, FSR, UPST, ADPT, LAZR, AMPL, INBX, TTCF, SOFI, ABNB, CRSR, NVAX, GME and NVRO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ARCC 2) INDA 3) EWY 4) BBWI 5) REM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AMC 2) OPK 3) GME 4) COIN 5) RIVN
Charts:

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +1.2% 2) Retail +.9% 3) Telecom -.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KSS, ATGE, M, BKE, URBN, CVNA, SNBR, WSM, KURA, EXEL, AEO, PTON, CWAN, CHWY and SAIA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RGS 2) LNC 3) TGNA 4) MAR 5) SH
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) M 2) KSS 3) JWN 4) CWH 5) FOXA

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +77.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
  • 10.0% of Issues Advancing, 87.3% Declining
  • 5 New 52-Week Highs, 659 New Lows
  • 36.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 38.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,289.0 -480.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,310 -1.5%
  • Vix 36.1 +25.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.23 -6.8%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.63 +11.6%