Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished US Troop Involvement in Ukraine Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Commodity/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 30.06 +.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,577.0 +288.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.58 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.4 +2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0  +24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -28.6%

• NYSE Arms .92 +24.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.25 +.45%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 403.99 +1.6%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.77 -1.3%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.88 +.51%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 215.05 -.64%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.95 -.54%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 -4.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 7.75 -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.0 -1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.17 +.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 75.75 +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.50 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.80 +2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 61.1 +3.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.3 +3.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +4.0 basis points
  
• 6.6%(-7.3 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 3.2%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,485 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 86%(-6.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -88/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -8.6%(-.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +194 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +66 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long