Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Russia Hits Back After U.K. Alleges Anti-Kyiv Plot.
• What Would War in Ukraine Mean for Europe’s Energy Crisis?
• China Rate Cuts Not Enough to Stabilize Economy: Ex-PBOC Adviser.
• Blinken Says It’s Too Early for Russia Sanctions Over Ukraine. 
• U.S. Orders Families of Diplomats Out of Ukraine Citing War Risk.
• Europe’s Economies Have More at Stake Than U.S. in Russia Clash.  
• Bond Meltdown Haunts Australian Central Bank as Inflation Builds.
• Asia Stocks Fall, U.S. Futures Rebound; Oil Higher: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Climbs on Outlook for Rising Demand as Omicron Wave Fades.
• Goldman Sees Risk Fed Will Tighten at Every Meeting From March.   
• Sanders Says Time for Senate to Change Course on Biden’s Agenda.
• U.S. Stocks Historically Deliver Strong Gains in Fed Hike Cycles.
  
• Retail Resolve, Credit Form a Stock Bull Case for Troubled Times.  
• Fed Seen Taking a Step Toward March Rate Increase: Eco Week.   
• Apple Nears First Product Launch of 2022, With 5G iPhone SE and New iPad on Tap.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Food Supply Is Under Pressure.
• Activist Investor Nelson Peltz Buys Stake in Unilever.
• Tech Rout Fueled by Bond-Market Turn.
• Inflation Poses Risks of Faster, Less Predictable Fed Rate Increases.
• In Hospital Strained by Covid-19, Weary Nurses Treat Too Many Patients.
• Why the Sustainable Investment Craze Is Flawed.
• The Nanotechnology Revolution Is Here—We Just Haven’t Noticed Yet.
• Train Robberies Are a Problem in Los Angeles, and No One Agrees on How to Stop Them.
• Green M&M’s Fashion Makeover Is Covid Comfy but Not Everyone Is Happy.
• Schools May Be Open—But They’re Struggling.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (WRBY), (GPC), (DAN), (COOP), (FISV), (MSFT) and (CNHI).

Fox News:    

• Liberal city's murder surge fueled by senseless killings over petty insults — and it's getting worse. 
• US issues dire warning to Americans in Ukraine as fears over war with Russia grow on world stage.
• Doctor destroys left's vaccine narrative as protesters flood Biden's backyard.

CNBC:

• Secretary of State Blinken warns of severe response if a single Russian force enters Ukraine in an aggressive way.
• Activist investor Blackwells aims to call on Peloton to fire CEO, explore sale.
• Inflation surge could push the Fed into more than four rate hikes this year, Goldman Sachs says.
• U.S. draws down Ukraine embassy presence as war fears mount.
• Top Wall Street analysts are bullish on these stocks heading into earnings.

Zero Hedge: 

• "A Catastrophic Moral Crime" - Bari Weiss & Bill Maher 'Say The Quiet Part Out Loud' On Leftist COVID Policies.
• Non-Citizen Voting Push Is Part Of Agenda To Rid America Of Citizenship: Election Expert. 
• Will The Market Flip Green This Week? Here Are The 15 Things On Goldman's Checklist.
• When A Wild Bull Stumbles Into A Hibernating Bear.
• "Take Only What You Need:" DC Asks People To Limit Supermarket Purchases As Empty Shelves Persist.
• Biden Already Blames Powell For The Democrats' House And Senate Losses In November.
• Blinken Says "Too Early" For Russia Sanctions As Hope For Unified NATO Response Unravels.
• Mayor Eric Adams Begs For Federal Help As NYC's Crime Problem Spirals Out Of Control.
• Morgan Stanley: "Winter Is Here, And Slowing Growth Will Overtake The Fed As The Primary Concern".
• "Do Not Comply" - Top Doctors Speak At 'Defeat The Mandates' Rally In DC.
• Democrats' Fight For Voting Rights Is A Fake Issue.
• New Hampshire Pharmacies Could Soon Begin Dispensing Ivermectin Without Doctor's Prescription.
• New Energy Regulations Will Make Every Room In Your House More Expensive.
• Update from the Bond Pit: The 10 things you need to know about the most important macro driver right now.
• 'Disinformation, Extremism And Violence': All Eyes On DC 'Defeat The Mandates' Rally As Organizers Caution Against Bad Actors.
• Germany Roiled By "Political Earthquake": Navy Chief Resigns After Saying "Putin Deserves Respect", Warning China Is "Not A Nice Country".
• American Megabanks Including Citi & JPM Order Workers Back To The Office In London & NYC.
• German Government "Concerned" About Massive Anti-COVID Restriction Protests.
• China's Censors Ban Hollywood Films As Beijing Builds Its Own "Movie Empire".
• How The Shale Revolution Saved Europe From A Great Blackout.
• Researchers Worry COVID Will Quickly Develop Resistance To New Pills From Pfizer And Merck.
• A Litany Of Absurdity.
• Big Tech Forcing MPs To Self-Censor In Australian Parliament: Craig Kelly MP.
• Don't Believe The Democrats' "Medical Bankruptcy" Narrative.
• Wife Stands Off With Hospital To Keep Her Husband Alive, And Wins.
• Unmask America.
• Here Comes The Pivot: JPM Sees Sharp Slowdown In US Economy, "No Further Hawkish Developments From The Fed".

NewsMax:

• Pompeo: Putin Doesn't See Joe Biden as 'Credible'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• DC Prison Warden Throws J-6ers into Lockdown and Isolation Without Warning – Democrats Continue to Shred Constitution in Quest for Total Dominance. 
• After Assisting China’s Military in COVID R&D the Biden Administration Gives Ecohealth Alliance a $4.7 Million Grant.
• Alberta Canada Inadvertently Published (and Quickly Deleted) Health Data Exposing that MORE THAN HALF of VACCINATED DEATHS Have Been COUNTED AS UNVACCINATED..
• PHOTOS AND VIDEO: Over 20,000 Americans March in Washington DC Against Vaccine Mandates and Medical Tyranny.
• POWERFUL! Professional Cycling Champion and Vaccine Victim Kyle Warner: “We Were .Asked to Do Our Part for Our Country and Then Cast Aside in the Name of Profits!” (VIDEO).
• “I Say This Sadly as a Lifelong Democrat, to Censor Americans is Incredibly Disturbing” – Dr. Naomi Wolf with Steve Malzberg.
• Now the BNSF Railroad Prepares to Go on Strike Adding to Challenges in Filling Already Empty Shelves in US Stores.
• Wisconsin Speaker Vos Is Secretly Pushing Legislation to Increase Number of Drop Boxes After Judge Ruled Them Illegal in State.
• Denver Elementary School Teaching Kids to ‘Disrupt the Nuclear Family’ and Support BLM.
• Professor Who Identified Unique Characteristics in COVID-19 Indicating It Was Built in a Lab Says He Was a Victim of a “Disgusting Whitewash”.
• Brazil: Child Vaccination Suspended After 10-Year-Old Girl Suffers Cardiac Arrest Hours After Receiving Pfizer Vaccine.
• URGENT CALL TO ACTION! Critical Election Reform To Be Considered On AZ Senate Floor: Bills Make Ballot Images Public Record and Ballot Currency-Grade Fraud Countermeasures.
• JUST IN: Latest UK Data Shows Covid Infection RATE Among the Triple Jabbed (Boosted) Is HIGHER And RISING FASTER Than The Unvaccinated Across ALMOST EVERY Age Group.
• Just When You Thought Things Could Not Get Any Worse… ‘Bare Shelves Biden’ Bans Unvaccinated Truckers from Mexico and Canada into the US.

The Epoch Times:

• New NATO Strategy Contends with ‘Rise of China’ for First Time: Expert.
• Debt Crisis Looms as China’s Housing Market Continues to Slump.

Twitter:

• @ElectionWiz - WATCH: A massive Canadian trucker convoy is on its way to Ottawa to participate in the trucker vaccine mandate protest. 
• @Bakkenpipe - What, no Papers? War on Free people in America getting hot. #NYPD drag free citizens out of #MuseumofNaturalHistory #NYC #VaccinePassports #Communism. (video) 
• @libsoftiktok - WATCH: At a recent school board meeting, it was revealed that a Michigan school placed a LITTER BOXES in the bathroom for students that identify as cats. Unbelievable.

GETTR: 

• @DiscloseTV - JUST IN - Israel: It's time to give a green light to moving beyond the vaccine pass. JPost calls: "The general public needs to be free to return to as normal a life and routine as possible." NOW - Thousands gather in front of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington DC, as speakers for today's rally against vaccine mandates take the stage. (video) NOW - Large protest against vaccine passports and Covid restrictions in #Brussels, the capital of Belgium the administrative center of the European Union. (video) NOW - NHS staff are throwing their uniforms in protest of the vaccine mandate at the police outside Downing Street. (video) NEW - Natural immunity was six times stronger during the delta wave than vaccination, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now reports in a "new report." JUST IN - Covid vaccine mandate for NHS staff "could be paused" amid dire warnings from hospital trusts and GPs of the severe impact if 70,000 unvaccinated workers would be sacked. NEW - Israel, where many received 3rd and 4th boosters, reports 69,104 new Covid cases. The country has the highest daily cases per capita globally now (JPost/ToI) NEW - FDA's attempt to close the door and lock out independent scientists from the data necessary is irresponsible. "Even more problematic is that Americans, if injured, cannot sue #Pfizer."
• @ClayAndBuckShow - Twitter Pulls Down Pfizer CEO’s Vax Admission "In his own words, 'very limited, if any' protection that is offered for that #vaccine for the first two doses." audio - @ClayTravis #AlbertBourla #Pfizer #RandPaul #Fauci.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 732,882 Reports(+9,841 from prior week) Through January 14, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 +1.25 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.36 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,762.0 -6.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.4 -3.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.52%.
• S&P 500 futures +.73%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.92%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BOH)/1.35
• (HAL)/.34
• (PHG)/.62
  

After the Close:

• (BRO)/.39
• (CR)/1.12
• (IBM)/3.29
• (LOGI)/1.06
• (STLD)/5.78
• (ZION)/1.32
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec.

9:45 am EST

• The Markit US Manufacturing PMI for Jan. is estimated to fall to 56.7 versus 57.7 in Dec.
• The Markit US Services PMI for Jan. is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 57.6 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report, 2Y T-Note auction and the Jefferies Restaurant/Foodservice/Gaming/Lodging/Leisure Summit could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.