Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,381.0 +13.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.50 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 -.21%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.1 +.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0  unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .86 -15.7%

• NYSE Arms .91 +1.11%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.79 -.31%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.24 +.24%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.82 -.93%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.94 -3.71%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.13 -3.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.52 +.70%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 7.75 -4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 n/a
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  85.5 -3.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.40 +.70%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% +4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 84.5 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 131.40 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.20 +9.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.3 -.9 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.1 +.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -4.0 basis points
  
• 3.0%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 1.6%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,605 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 93%(+11.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +196/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -2.0%(+1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/7/21 - 1/13/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +298 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +59 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/medical sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long