Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.1 -9.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,780.0 +274.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.98 +.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 -1.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.3 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0  -27.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +5.7%

• NYSE Arms .96 +2.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.15 -2.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 395.09 -2.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.70 -1.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.55 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 209.15 -3.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.26 +.70% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 901.15 -3.12%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.75 +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  83.25 -1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.13 -.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .18% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 74.75 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 138.45 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.10 +3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.7 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 +2.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +3.0 basis points
  
• 1.5%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, .2%(n/a) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,389 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 81%(-5.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -96/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -9.1%(-.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +199 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my index hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long