Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Dollar Weakness, Commodity/Shipping Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -2.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,620.0 +12.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.01 -.03%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.93 -1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.9 +2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0  -38.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .82 +10.8%

• NYSE Arms .99 +39.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.35 -.82%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.15 -2.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.90 -1.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.91 -.05%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.58 +.46%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.13 -.59%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 13.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  78.25 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.65 +1.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 84.25 -1.25 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.63%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.60 +5.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.1 -5.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -3.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 -5.0 basis points
  
• 21.2%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 12.3%(-.2 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,592 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -24/100K people from prior report. 98%(-2.0 percentage points) of Jan. 9 peak.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population at new record high +28.6%(-3.9 percentage points from prior report) from prior 7-day avg. of 12/28/21 - 1/3/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -80 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +116 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/industrial/tech sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long