Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Worries, Dollar Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:   Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.8 -.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,469.0 -53.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.30 -.38%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 +.31%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 47.0 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 89.0  -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +6.1%

• NYSE Arms .98 +5.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.03 +3.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 409.52 +4.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.87 +1.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.60 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.31 +1.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.82 -.24% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 804.91 -10.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 8.25 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.5 -.55 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.0 +2.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.86 -.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .19% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 66.75 -8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 139.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 0.0 +16.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 65.7 +5.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +4.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -5.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(-.2 percentage point) chance of no change at June 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,308 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 76.0%(-5.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -81/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.6%(-1.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +320 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -141 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long