Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.3 +6.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,913.0 -225.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.75 -.10%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +.31%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.7 +1.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0  -6.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.21 +24.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.48 +22.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.63 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 391.03 +2.3%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.70 +2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.78 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 212.70 +.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.03 +.27%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.25 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 -2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.75 +.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 +.75 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.40 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 75.75 -4.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.40 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.4 -.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.8 +2.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -10.0 basis points
  
• 6.6%(+3.6 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 3.4%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,573 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 92%(-3.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -58/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -2.8%(unch.) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -62 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -13 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long