Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Xi Reshapes China Property Market Paving Way for State Dominance.  
• Asia Stocks Decline as Fed Hawks Spur Nasdaq Rout: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Heads for Fourth Weekly Advance as Traders Shrug Off Omicron.  
• Trucking, Farming, Heating Will Get More Costly as Diesel Surges.
• ‘We’re Overwhelmed:’ Nurses Strike Across the U.S. to Protest Covid Working Conditions.
  
• U.S. Truckers Near Deadline to Get Shots or Be Barred by Canada.
• Biden Suffers Political Setback With Scant Hope for Voting Bills.
• America’s Political Future (Still) Hinges on Georgia.
• Omicron Wave May Have Peaked in Boston, Sewage Data Show.  
• Teen Cyber Prodigy Stumbled Onto Flaw Letting Him Hijack Teslas.
• Henry Kaufman, 1970s Wall Street Dr. Doom, Blasts Powell on Inflation.  
• IRS Targets Your Side Hustle in Crackdown on Transactions Over $600.  
• Treasury Market Stages Reprieve Rally as Yield Surge Lures Cash.  
• Fed’s Waller Says Three 2022 Rate Hikes ‘Still a Good Baseline’.  
• Top Democrat Targets Scaramucci’s SkyBridge, Others in Opportunity-Zone Probe.

Wall Street Journal:

• One of the World’s Dirtiest Oil Patches Is Pumping More Than Ever.
• Student-Loan Processor Navient to Cancel $1.7 Billion of Debts.
• Fed’s Brainard Says Reducing Inflation Is Top Priority.
  
• A Split Supreme Court Decision on Vaccine Mandates. At least the Justices struck down OSHA’s overreach on private employers.
• Biden’s Operation Snail Speed on Covid Therapies. Less than 1% of $1.9 trillion in last March’s relief cash went for treatments. 
• These TikTok Stars Made More Money Than Many of America’s Top CEOs.
• Truckers Fret Over Pending Covid-19 Rules at U.S.-Canada Border.

Fox News:

• Alleged cold-blooded killer's warpath moments before deadly rampage  
• Biden's failure to anticipate Taliban Afghanistan takeover, omicron spread shows 'inability to lead': GOP.
• Steve Forbes torches Biden's remarks on economy, jobs: They're 'standing in the way' of recovery.

CNBC.com:

• Supreme Court blocks Biden Covid vaccine mandate for businesses, allows health-care worker rule.
• Fed’s Harker calls for ‘action on inflation,’ sees 3 or 4 rate hikes likely this year.
• What Delta Air Lines predicts for business travel after the omicron variant.
• Ford’s market cap tops $100 billion for first time.
• Profits for S&P 500 companies rose 22% in the fourth quarter and nearly 50% in 2021, estimates show.
• Queen Elizabeth strips Prince Andrew’s remaining royal affiliations as he fights Epstein accuser suit.
• Mastercard CEO says spending trends look ‘relatively positive’ so far in 2022 after strong holiday.

MarketWatch:    

• ‘There’s no way the stock market goes up this year, it probably goes down pretty aggressively,’ says hedge-fund honcho Kyle Bass.
  
• Bad news for home buyers: Mortgage rates soar to highest level since March 2020.

Zero Hedge:

• Supreme Court Blocks Biden's OSHA Vaxx Mandate.
• Global Economy Heading For "Mother Of All" Supply Chain Shocks As China Locks Down Ports.
• Helicopter Operations May Be Affected By Nationwide 5G Rollout.
• Texas, Florida Residents Can Pat Themselves On The Back.
• World's Largest Asset Manager: Central Banks Are Trapped As They Can't Fight Supply-Driven Inflation.
• Some Good News: Rents Have Finally Peaked As Rental Market Enters "Widespread Cooldown".
• China Sends A Message With Weakest Yuan Fixing Relative To Expectations In Over A Month.
• US Hits N.Korea With More Sanctions As Kim Hails Tests Of Hypersonic Nuclear "War Deterrent".
• Revenue At Goldman's Commodity Desk Soars To Highest In A Decade, Setting Up Partners For Massive Bonuses.
• In His Last Comment As Fed Vice Chair, Clarida Echoes Brainard, Says Rate Hikes Coming.
• Bipartisan Lawmakers Float Stock Trading Bans For Members Of Congress.
• Nationwide Surge In Deaths Among People Aged 18-49: A State By State Overview.
• Capitalism And Common Sense Will End Vaccine Mandates In 2022.
• Bitcoin, Breakevens, & Big-Tech Breakdown As Inflation Batters Bond Bears.

Newsmax: 

• Rep. Norman: Biden's Inflation Makes Jimmy Carter 'Look Like a Hero'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Roberts and Kavanaugh Side with Lefties, Allow Healthcare Worker Vax Mandate to Stand.
• Jan. 6 Committee Subpoenas Twitter, Reddit, Google and Facebook to See ‘How the Spread of Misinformation Contributed to Capitol Attack’.
• Psaki Refuses to Condemn Video from Iran’s Supreme Leader That Depicts the Assassination of President Trump (VIDEO).
• Tragic: 38-Year-Old Athlete Dies after Suffering Heart Attack During Swim Portion at Ironman 70.3 Pucon (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden Vows to Go to War with State Legislatures After Sinema and Manchin Blow Up His Bid to Kill the Filibuster (VIDEO).
• Sinema Deals Fatal Blow to Democrats’ ‘Voting Rights’ Bill Two Days After Biden Calls on Senate to Nuke Filibuster (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: OathKeepers Founder and President Stewart Rhodes Arrested — Charged with Seditious Conspiracy a Year Following Jan. 6 Protests.
• “It Has to Stop” – Joe Biden Tells Social Media Companies to “Deal with” Covid “Misinformation and Disinformation” (VIDEO).
• BOOM! Only 31% of Americans Trust Megalomaniac Dr. Fauci After His Many Proven Lies on COVID Origins and Effective Treatments.
• After Firing Unvaxxed Healthcare Workers, California Tells Covid-Positive Medical Workers to Stay on the Job.
• Investigation Launched After 13-Year-Old Brazilian Girl Dies – Mother Blames Pfizer Vaccine.

The Epoch Times:

• China Underreporting COVID-19 Death Rate by 17,000 Percent, Economist Says.

Twitter: 

• @Krommsan - In case anyone missed their beloved #PfizerCEO say the quiet parts out loud… Pfizer CEO: “Two doses of the vaccine offers very limited protection, if any. 3 doses with a booster offer reasonable protection against hospitalization and deaths. Less protection against infection.” (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - THIS IS AMERICA. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 715,856 Reports(+6,773 from prior week) Through December 31, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.25 +3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +2.5 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.24 -.02%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,250.0 -150.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 +.48%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.92%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BLK)/10.11
• (C)/1.66
• (FRC)/1.94
• (JPM)/3.05
• (WFC)/1.00
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.0% gain in Nov.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in Nov.
• Capacity Utilization for Dec. is estimated to rise to 77.0% versus 76.8% in Nov.
• Manufacturing Production for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Nov.

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Jan. is estimated to fall to 70.0 versus 70.6 in Dec.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations is estimated at +4.8% versus +4.8% in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Jan. and the Eurozone CPI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.