Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Around Even
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.9 +.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,298.0 +48.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.80 -.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.6 +.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 81.0  -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -8.6%

• NYSE Arms .75 -3.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.56 +.17%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.92 -.50%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.31 +2.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.55 +6.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.34 +.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.11 -.11%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.5 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.4 -.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 87.25 -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.9 -11.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.1 +2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.4 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 -6.0 basis points
• 24.2%(-4.4 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 14.6%(-2.6 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,223 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +73/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.4%(+12.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +298 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +44 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -24 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long