Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Disappointing US Jobs Report, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,428.0 +113.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.31 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -4.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.5 -.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0  +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -6.2%

• NYSE Arms .47 -42.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.44 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 392.20 +1.0%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.54 +2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.56 -.87%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 196.42 +.67%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.67 -.24%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.65 +.40%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 84.75 -2.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.6 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.5 +.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.6 +1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 +3.0 basis points
• 24.2%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 15.7%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,269 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +46/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -.2%(+10.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -48 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/industrial sector long and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long