Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Dollar Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.0 -7.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,401.0 +186.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.0 -.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 -3.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.1 -8.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0  +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -7.8%

• NYSE Arms .80 -27.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.42 +1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 373.09 +.17%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.03 +.43%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.34 +.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 209.65 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.95 +1.61%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 9.5 +1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 n/a
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  86.25 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.52 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .17% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 80.5 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 137.75 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.60 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.9 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.7 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 unch.
  
• 3.0%(unch.) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 1.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,631 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 95%(+2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +26/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -2.8%(-.8 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/7/21 - 1/13/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +17 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +70 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my transport/medical/tech sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long