Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Increasing Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Dollar Strength, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.2 +15.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,393.0 -215.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.65 -.73%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.8 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.4 +12.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 107.0  +5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 -3.7%

• NYSE Arms .96 +50.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.16 +3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.17 +.4%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.32 +1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.28 +3.11%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 218.60 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.25 -1.6%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.75 +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 11.75 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 n/a
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  89.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.94 -.69%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .13% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 80.5 -.5 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.90 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.70 -7.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 42.2 +6.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +8.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 +1.0 basis point
  
• 0.0%(-13.9 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(-8.1 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,409 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 82% of 1/14 peak -253/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -3.4% from peak 7-day avg. of 1/7/21 - 1/13/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my transport/industrial/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long