Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Global Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Sector Rotation, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 +3.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,422.0 +103.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.11 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 26.4 -.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0  +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 +8.0%

• NYSE Arms .68 +3.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.66 +.35%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.38 +.39%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.67 -.18%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.3 -2.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 189.5 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.97 +.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 18.75 -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 14.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.0 unch.
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.71 -.64%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 85.0 +4.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 123.75 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.0 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.7 +4.3 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.1 +1.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 -2.0 basis points
• 36.8%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 23.4%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,035 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +144/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.4%(+12.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -7 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -38 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/transport sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long