Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Virus Lockdown/Mandate Concerns, Retail/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.4 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,432.0 +27.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.11 -.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.95 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.0 +2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0  +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call 1.09 +17.2%

• NYSE Arms .72 -31.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.79 +1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.48 -.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.08 +2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +4.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 213.74 +3.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 31.72 -1.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  84.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.27 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 81.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.90 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.90 -13.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.9 -.4 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.5 +1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +1.0 basis point
  
• 13.9%(-10.4 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 8.1%(-.8 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,662 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). At new peak +20/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population at new record high +20.5%(-4.0 percentage points) from prior 7-day avg. of 12/30/21 - 1/5/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +101 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my transport/industrial/tech/medical/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long