Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Rising Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.1 +7.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,370.0 -80.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.33 +.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 -1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.8 +11.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0  -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 +16.3%

• NYSE Arms .90 +50.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.02 +2.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 384.64 -.31%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.81 +2.1%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.75 +.44%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.37 +3.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.84 -.41%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 12.5 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.59 -.35%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 88.5 +3.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.10 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.4 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 38.0 -2.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.3 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 -6.0 basis points
• 28.6%(-8.2 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 17.2%(-6.2 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,150 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +115/100K people
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -10.4%(+12.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/3/21-1/9/21
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -192 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/medical/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long