Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Labor/Product Shortage Fears, Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Fed Rate-Hike Concerns, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.6 +5.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,547.0 -90.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.80 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.90 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.7 +5.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0  -25.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 +2.4%

• NYSE Arms .94 +6.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.59 +2.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.91 +.6%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.9 +1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.0 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 204.33 +2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 32.07 -.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 13.25 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  82.5 +4.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 54.29 -.60%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 83.0 -1.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.90 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.10 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 36.3 +2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index +4.9 +5.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -5.0 basis points
  
• 24.3%(-5.9 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 8.9%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 1,642 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). At new peak +50/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population at new record high +24.5%(-4.1 percentage point from prior report) from prior 7-day avg. of 12/29/21 - 1/4/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -84 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -94 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/industrial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long