Thursday, June 27, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 66.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +1.7%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.7 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Window Dressing, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.5 -.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -22.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.8 +3.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 188.6 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 -.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 9.4 -.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 173.0 +10.0
  • Total Put/Call .72 -1.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 +11.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$108.4M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.98 -.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 273.5 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 262 -3
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.61 +.13%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.2 +.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.2 -1.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.2 +1.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 144.0 +7.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.15%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points unch.
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 61.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.6 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.2 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.2 -2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +2.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +22.1% +15.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.53 -.14:  Growth Rate +14.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.71 +.10: Growth Rate +22.5% unch., P/E 34.6 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .47 -8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -42.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.7% -30.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 53.6% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 57.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 49.9%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +303 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -194 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/biotech/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants -1.1% 2) Retail -.7% 3) Road & Rail -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FND, WOR, COR, SBS, CMG, MU, TRML, IP, AS, HIMS, SM, CTRI, LEVI, ELAN, NNE and WBA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NKLA 2) LEVI 3) IP 4) WBA 5) HIMS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) WBA 2) CTRI 3) RXRX 4) AVAV 5) LEVI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLV 4) XPO 5) XLF

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Cyber Security +2.3% 2) Internet +1.7% 3) Networking +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SUZ, IIIV, STVN, CNXC, S, RH, VKTX, ZS, CRM, SYM, SMCI, JEF, NXT, CAMT, PANW, BBIO, IOT, ZETA, MKC, MRUS, NPWR, CRDO, SNOW, CZR, SDGR, GRND, DESP, CVNA, ZTS, SEDG and ADBE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ELAN 2) TH 3) LEVI 4) PSNY 5) WOOF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KALA 2) VIGL 3) CARE 4) IIIV 5) CNXC
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IYW 2) XLE 3) XBI 4) VGT 5) PRN
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Personal Income for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in April.
  • Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • The Core PCE Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.

9:45 am EST

  • The MNI Chicago PMI for June is estimated to rise to 40.0 versus 35.4 in May.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index final readings.

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for June.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, Dallas Fed PCE Index for May, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (SIG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -13.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +.8
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 56.7% of Issues Advancing, 40.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.47 +47.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$1.9M
  • 57 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
  • 52.0% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.5 +2.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.1 -.08%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,031.6 +.05%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (NEUTRAL) +5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.0 +3.2%
  • Vix 12.7 +1.0%
  • Total Put/Call .75 +2.7%

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @kylenabecker
  • New House Intelligence Report Reveals How the CIA Committed Election Interference in 2020. "The 51 former intelligence officials’ Hunter Biden statement was a blatant political operation from the start. It originated with a call from top Biden campaign official—and now Secretary of State—Antony Blinken to former Deputy Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Michael Morell." A joint interim report reveals the CIA was an active participant in the Hunter Biden laptop disinformation campaign, which was carried out by the U.S. government against the American people.
  • @gatewaypundit
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @CollinRugg
  • @OilLondonTV 
  • @catturd2
  • @wideawake_media
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @stillgray  
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @TaraBull808
  • @RedpillDrifter
  • @unusual_whales
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 -.5 basis point
  • China Sovereign CDS 68.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.0 +5.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.0 +.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.35%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.48%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Rotation into FANG, Technical Buying, Transport/Regional Bank Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.6 -1.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .66 -38.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.8 +2.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 188.0 +.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 +2.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 9.6 -7.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +19.0
  • Total Put/Call .70 -22.2%
  • NYSE Arms .86 -47.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$355.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.98 +.06%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 271.43 -.64%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 265 +6
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.5 +2.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.2 +.32%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.0 -.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 172.4 +.43%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 134.4 +.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.87 -.12%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points +4.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 718.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 62.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.97 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.9 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.7 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +6.2% -.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 260.67 +.08:  Growth Rate +14.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 328.61 +.26: Growth Rate +22.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.3 +.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .55 -4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -43.25 basis points (2s/10s) +7.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.0% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 53.6% -.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.12% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 56.3%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 50.3%(+.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -247 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -208 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +183 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Construction -1.3% 2) Insurance -1.2% 3) Biotech -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GSK, IMCR, GLW, TROX, WOR, GIS, KALV, SEDG, PAYX, ENVX, MAX, MRNA, APTV ad NNE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RIVN 2) HES 3) FDX 4) LW 5) WHR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) APTV 2) MRNA 3) MAX 4) GIS 5) DRCT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLE 3) XLV 4) OIH 5) VOX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles +2.2% 2) Steel +1.0% 3) Internet +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • IOT, FROG, UPS, CCL, STAA, CPB, ALNY, BRZE, RGEN, TGLS, DAKT, RIVN, GRND, FDX, WHR, GTLB, VSTO, PRGS, ALB, EXAS, RPD, MDB, SQM, SVV, B, HUT, SNOW, TSLA, AMZN, X, JKS, IOT and CUK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FDX 2) GEO 3) MAXN 4) RIVN 5) TMC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WHR 2) FDX 3) RIVN 4) TGLS 5) ORMP
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLU 3) IYW 4) SMH 5) XLP
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AYI)/4.08
  • (APOG)/1.04
  • (LNN)/1.17
  • (MKC)/.59
  • (SMPL)/.48
  • (WBA)/.68
After the Close: 
  • (ACCD)/-.48
  • (NKE)/.84
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • 1Q GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a prior estimate of a +1.3% gain.
  • 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a prior estimate of a +2.0% gain.
  • 1Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +3.6% versus a prior estimate of a +3.6% gain.
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for May is estimated at -$96.0B versus -$99.4B in April.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in April.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 235K versus 238K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1829K versus 1828K prior.
  • Durable Goods Orders for May is estimated to fall -.4% versus a +.6% gain in April.
  • Durables Ex Transports for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -7.7% decline in April.

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for June is estimated to fall to -5 versus -2 in May.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The US presidential debate after close, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, Fed Bank Stress Test Results after close, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DELL) annual meeting, (AEO) annual meeting, (KR) annual meeting, (CRM) annual meeting, (RH) annual meeting and the (AVAV) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST