Monday, December 26, 2005

Tuesday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US toy sales are headed for their third straight annual decline because children like 6-year-old Dawson Painter prefer electronic games.
- President Bush asked Americans to keep the families of US military men and women in mind during the Christmas holiday, saying their wartime sacrifices are protecting the country’s freedoms.
- Eastman Kodak probably generated increased holiday sales of digital cameras and printers, boosting efforts by the world’s largest photography company to shift from its traditional film business.
- Amazon.com said holiday sale worldwide set a record this year on demand for Apple’s iPod music players, video games and jewelry.
- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it discovered oil off Brazil’s southeastern coast and wants to start producing by the end of the decade.
- The yen is falling by the most against the euro in more than two months and had the biggest loss versus the dollar in a week after reports showed Japanese household spending unexpectedly slid and unemployment increased.
- Crude oil is falling as much as 1.4% in NY on forecasts for milder weather in the US and on expectations heating fuel stockpiles, including natural gas, are adequate to meet winter demand.

NY Times:
- Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are among Wall Street firms investing in online casinos and betting parlors and ignoring the government’s edict that those organizations are illegal.
- Pennsylvania lawmakers are investigating whether the political atmosphere of 18 state-run universities and colleges requires legislation to ban political bias in the classroom.
- The Israeli economy is likely to grow 5% this year, up from 4% in 2004, as its technology industries approach the peak they reached in 2000.

Washington Post:
- Immigrant entrepreneurs in the US are using small vending carts or kiosks in malls as a springboard into retailing.

Economic Daily News:
- Global shipments for flat-panel displays used in computers will see a modest slide in the first quarter of 2006, falling by a single digit from the fourth quarter, citing AU Optronics Executive VP Hui.

Kommersant:
- OPEC President Sheikh al-Sabah is visiting Moscow to ask Russia to cooperate on a planned cut in oil production and to learn more about Russia’s plans to supply China.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on OSK, COP, APC and FDX.
- Had negative comments on GE and NTRI.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CBI/.26
TDS/.29
USM/.37

Upcoming Splits
MRTN 3-for-2
KNX 3-for-2
JBLU 3-for-2
WFMI 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Richmond Fed Index for December is estimated to rise to 10 versus a reading of 9 in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed, as declining energy prices are offsetting disappointing economic data from Japan. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and build on gains later in the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, December 23, 2005

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,268.66 +.11%
DJIA 10,883.27 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,249.42 -.14%
Russell 2000 686.44 +.49%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,692.96 +.20%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,108.41 +.27%
S&P Barra Growth 607.15 +.11%
S&P Barra Value 657.12 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.02 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 792.81 +.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.92 -.32%
Transports 4,266.75 +3.0%
Utilities 411.65 -1.48%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,664 unch.
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.9 -57.93%
Put/Call .69 -13.75%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +35.42%
Volatility(VIX) 10.27 -3.84%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -13.98%
AAII % Bulls 41.03 -11.09%
US Dollar 90.78 +1.19%
CRB 326.31 -.01%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.40 -.07%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.43 -.97%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.05 -.48%
Natural Gas 12.28 -10.01%
Heating Oil 170.53 -1.63%
Gold 505.90 -.16%
Base Metals 153.51 -.14%
Copper 203.50 +.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% -1.35%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.26% -.63%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +8.45%
Gaming +2.94%
Drugs +2.92%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.33%
Utilities -1.48%
Oil Tankers -2.0%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

***Alert***

I am done posting for the day. I will post the Weekly Scoreboard this evening.

Chart of Interest

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Durable Goods Orders Jump, Consumer Confidence Rises Most in 13 Years Last 2 Months, New Home Sales Weaken

- Durable Goods Orders for November rose 4.4% versus estimates of a 1.2% increase and a 3.0% gain in October.
- Durables Ex Transportation for November fell .6% versus estimates of a 1.0% gain and a .2% decline in October.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December rose to 91.5 versus estimates of 89.0 and a prior estimate of 88.7.
- New Home Sales for November fell to 1245K versus estimates of 1300K and 1404K in October.
BOTTOM LINE: US orders for durable goods jumped 4.4% in November, the most in six months, propelled by a surge in demand for aircraft, Bloomberg reported. Orders for transportation equipment soared 15.6% versus an 11.2% gain the prior month. Orders for defense hardware plunged 27% in November. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, dropped 2% last month. The decline in durables ex transportation is surprising given record low inventory levels. I would expect to see an increase in this number next month.

US consumer confidence rose in December to the highest since July as lower gas prices and a rising stock market gave Americans more money to spend for the holidays, Bloomberg reported. The expectations component of the index soared to 80.2 from 69.6 the prior month. The current conditions component of the index, which is a gauge of Americans’ perception of their financial situation and if it’s a good time to purchase large items such as cars, jumped to 109.1 from 100.2 in November. Consumer confidence has now surged 17.3 percentage points in two months, the biggest two-month gain since the final two months of 1992. I expect consumer confidence to reach cycle highs over the intermediate-term as rising stock prices, low interest rates, an end to the Fed tightening cycle, falling energy prices, a stable job market and lower inflation readings more than offset a slowing housing market, thus leading to a lifting of the irrational pessimism that has developed since the bursting of the stock market bubble and 9/11 terrorist attacks.

US new home sales in November fell as rising mortgage rates and elevated prices discouraged some buyers, Bloomberg reported. Sales fell 11.3% from an all-time high in October, while the median price of a new home rose slightly to $225,200. The supply of new homes at the current sales rate increased to 4.9 months, the most in 9 years. Sales fell 22.1% in the West, 18.3% in the Midwest and 5.5% in the South. Sales rose 13.4% in the Northeast. I continue to expect the housing market to slow to more healthy, sustainable levels from all-time record highs. This will likely lead to a slowing in the overall US economy to average rates from high rates, which will benefit US stocks.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote