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Thursday, June 08, 2006
Wednesday, June 07, 2006
Thursday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US dollar rose for a third day against the euro, the longest rally since March, as Federal Reserve officials signaled they may raise interest rates this month to keep inflation contained.
- Porsche AG, the carmaker with the highest profit margins in the world, went from 32nd place to first in a leading auto-quality survey.
- The US House today passed a bill to raise maximum fines 10-fold against broadcasters for airing indecent material, sending the measure to President Bush to be signed into law.
- Borrowing by US consumers rose by the most in 10 months in April as Americans took out more car loans and charged more of their credit cards.
- Crude oil fell for a third day in NY as Iran considered incentives to end the country’s nuclear research and a report showed US oil and gas stockpiles increased.
- South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point to 4.25%, a three-year high.
Financial Times:
- Walt Disney(DIS) has started licensing fresh fruit in European food retailers.
London-based Times:
- Goldman Sachs Group(GS) may raise over $10 billion for a new private equity fund.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.50% to -1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (NSM)/.38
- (QSII)/.23
- (ZQK)/.03
- (REY)/.36
- (SHFL)/.22
- (SFD)/.06
Upcoming Splits
- (SCSS) 3-for-2
- (B) 2-for-1
- (CGI) 2-for-1
- (FD) 2-for-1
- (MAR) 2-for-1
- (TRN) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 330K versus 336K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2425K versus 2433K prior.
10:00 pm EST
- Wholesale Inventories for April are estimated to rise .5% versus a .2% gain in March.
Bloomberg:
- The US dollar rose for a third day against the euro, the longest rally since March, as Federal Reserve officials signaled they may raise interest rates this month to keep inflation contained.
- Porsche AG, the carmaker with the highest profit margins in the world, went from 32nd place to first in a leading auto-quality survey.
- The US House today passed a bill to raise maximum fines 10-fold against broadcasters for airing indecent material, sending the measure to President Bush to be signed into law.
- Borrowing by US consumers rose by the most in 10 months in April as Americans took out more car loans and charged more of their credit cards.
- Crude oil fell for a third day in NY as Iran considered incentives to end the country’s nuclear research and a report showed US oil and gas stockpiles increased.
- South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly increased its benchmark interest rate a quarter percentage point to 4.25%, a three-year high.
Financial Times:
- Walt Disney(DIS) has started licensing fresh fruit in European food retailers.
London-based Times:
- Goldman Sachs Group(GS) may raise over $10 billion for a new private equity fund.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -2.50% to -1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.18%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (NSM)/.38
- (QSII)/.23
- (ZQK)/.03
- (REY)/.36
- (SHFL)/.22
- (SFD)/.06
Upcoming Splits
- (SCSS) 3-for-2
- (B) 2-for-1
- (CGI) 2-for-1
- (FD) 2-for-1
- (MAR) 2-for-1
- (TRN) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
8:30 pm EST
- Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 330K versus 336K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2425K versus 2433K prior.
10:00 pm EST
- Wholesale Inventories for April are estimated to rise .5% versus a .2% gain in March.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, pressured by commodity and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open lower and to rise modestly into the afternoon, finishing slightly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
***Alert***
I have been unable to publish all day due to technical problems with Blogger.com, the host of this site. I will keep trying to post later this evening. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Wednesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Coffee fell the most since February in London and dropped to a five-month low in NY on speculation that the harvest in Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest exporter, is the largest in eight years.
- Google(GOOG) plans to use Dell(DELL) servers as part of its $30,000 search appliance to lure more corporate customers.
- China had a coal mine accident that killed between three and nine people nearly everyday in May, a 30% higher accident rate than in the same month last year. China must take stronger
- The US House of Representatives approved a $32.1 billion spending measure to finance the Homeland Security Dept.’s efforts to tighten security at US ports and borders and fund local emergency programs.
- AU Optronics(AUO) cut its second quarter panel shipments forecast, citing recent market changes.
- Bird flu is a “high risk” for India, Pakistan and other South Asian countries because of the number of poultry kept in the region, where a spread of the vius among humans would cause a recession, the World Bank said.
Financial Times:
- Best Buy Co.(BBY) plans to expand further internationally after it entered China last month, citing an interview with CEO Brad Anderson.
Shanghai Morning Post:
- China may cut tax rebates for some exports, while boosting rebates for technical exports, to help reduce its trade surplus.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.13%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AMWD)/.51
- (ALOG)/.41
- (BMC)/.29
- (HRB)/1.79
- (IDT)/-.22
- (MTN)/1.73
Upcoming Splits
- (NSSC) 3-for-2
- (SCSS) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude drawdown of 500,000 barrels. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise 1,500,000 barrels. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise 1,750,000 barrels. Finally, refinery utilization is expected to rise .25%.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for April is estimated to rise to $3.5B versus $2.5B in March.
Bloomberg:
- Coffee fell the most since February in London and dropped to a five-month low in NY on speculation that the harvest in Indonesia, the world’s fourth-largest exporter, is the largest in eight years.
- Google(GOOG) plans to use Dell(DELL) servers as part of its $30,000 search appliance to lure more corporate customers.
- China had a coal mine accident that killed between three and nine people nearly everyday in May, a 30% higher accident rate than in the same month last year. China must take stronger
- The US House of Representatives approved a $32.1 billion spending measure to finance the Homeland Security Dept.’s efforts to tighten security at US ports and borders and fund local emergency programs.
- AU Optronics(AUO) cut its second quarter panel shipments forecast, citing recent market changes.
- Bird flu is a “high risk” for India, Pakistan and other South Asian countries because of the number of poultry kept in the region, where a spread of the vius among humans would cause a recession, the World Bank said.
Financial Times:
- Best Buy Co.(BBY) plans to expand further internationally after it entered China last month, citing an interview with CEO Brad Anderson.
Shanghai Morning Post:
- China may cut tax rebates for some exports, while boosting rebates for technical exports, to help reduce its trade surplus.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.11%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.13%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (AMWD)/.51
- (ALOG)/.41
- (BMC)/.29
- (HRB)/1.79
- (IDT)/-.22
- (MTN)/1.73
Upcoming Splits
- (NSSC) 3-for-2
- (SCSS) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude drawdown of 500,000 barrels. Gasoline supplies are expected to rise 1,500,000 barrels. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise 1,750,000 barrels. Finally, refinery utilization is expected to rise .25%.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for April is estimated to rise to $3.5B versus $2.5B in March.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, pressured by commodity and technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rise into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Slightly Lower on Late-day Rebound
Indices
S&P 500 1,263.85 -.11%
DJIA 11,002.14 -.42%
NASDAQ 2,162.78 -.32%
Russell 2000 710.96 -.41%
Wilshire 5000 12,722.96 -.25%
S&P Barra Growth 584.53 -.01%
S&P Barra Value 677.63 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 601.24 +.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 817.50 -1.12%
Morgan Stanley Technology 496.31 -.53%
Transports 4,608.38 -.24%
Utilities 410.86 -.22%
Put/Call .96 -20.66%
NYSE Arms 1.08 -61.36%
Volatility(VIX) 17.34 +4.14%
ISE Sentiment 108.00 -11.48%
US Dollar 84.77 +.75%
CRB 344.78 -1.15%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 72.45 -.07%
Unleaded Gasoline 218.25 +.17%
Natural Gas 6.38 -.03%
Heating Oil 204.24 -.01%
Gold 633.20 -.24%
Base Metals 219.31 -2.65%
Copper 347.00 -.56%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.00% -.32%
Leading Sectors
Telecom +.93%
Restaurants +.21%
Networking +.13%
Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -1.95%
Homebuilders -2.78%
Gold & Silver -2.80%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (TWI) Buy, target $26.
Banc of America:
- Rated (BA) Buy, target $93.
- Rated (GD) Buy, target $72.
- Rated (JOYG) Buy, target $62.
- Rated (CAT) Buy, target $80.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fidelity Investments had its debt outlook lowered to negative from stable by S&P, which said the world’s largest mutual fund manager has lost ground to competitors.
- The US dollar will strengthen against the euro by the first quarter of 2007 as the US economy slows and the trade deficit narrows, according to HBOS Group.
- Harvard University researchers have entered the race to do what Korean scientist Hwang Woo Suk falsely claimed to have accomplished last year: clone a human embryo in the lab to create stem cells genetically matched to a living person.
- Lawyers for 15 Canadian men accused of a terrorist plot to blow up Ontario landmarks said prosecutors are charging one of the defendants with planning to storm parliament and behead Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
- President Bush said Iran’s response to a US-backed initiative aimed at resolving a standoff over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is a “positive” first step toward negotiations.
- Money manager Mario Gabelli has settled a civil lawsuit alleging he defrauded the US government by using “sham” companies to win cellular phone licenses.
BBC:
- President Putin has commended the cooperation between Russia and the US over Iran.
S&P 500 1,263.85 -.11%
DJIA 11,002.14 -.42%
NASDAQ 2,162.78 -.32%
Russell 2000 710.96 -.41%
Wilshire 5000 12,722.96 -.25%
S&P Barra Growth 584.53 -.01%
S&P Barra Value 677.63 -.22%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 601.24 +.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 817.50 -1.12%
Morgan Stanley Technology 496.31 -.53%
Transports 4,608.38 -.24%
Utilities 410.86 -.22%
Put/Call .96 -20.66%
NYSE Arms 1.08 -61.36%
Volatility(VIX) 17.34 +4.14%
ISE Sentiment 108.00 -11.48%
US Dollar 84.77 +.75%
CRB 344.78 -1.15%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 72.45 -.07%
Unleaded Gasoline 218.25 +.17%
Natural Gas 6.38 -.03%
Heating Oil 204.24 -.01%
Gold 633.20 -.24%
Base Metals 219.31 -2.65%
Copper 347.00 -.56%
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.00% -.32%
Leading Sectors
Telecom +.93%
Restaurants +.21%
Networking +.13%
Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -1.95%
Homebuilders -2.78%
Gold & Silver -2.80%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Oppenheimer:
- Rated (TWI) Buy, target $26.
Banc of America:
- Rated (BA) Buy, target $93.
- Rated (GD) Buy, target $72.
- Rated (JOYG) Buy, target $62.
- Rated (CAT) Buy, target $80.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fidelity Investments had its debt outlook lowered to negative from stable by S&P, which said the world’s largest mutual fund manager has lost ground to competitors.
- The US dollar will strengthen against the euro by the first quarter of 2007 as the US economy slows and the trade deficit narrows, according to HBOS Group.
- Harvard University researchers have entered the race to do what Korean scientist Hwang Woo Suk falsely claimed to have accomplished last year: clone a human embryo in the lab to create stem cells genetically matched to a living person.
- Lawyers for 15 Canadian men accused of a terrorist plot to blow up Ontario landmarks said prosecutors are charging one of the defendants with planning to storm parliament and behead Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
- President Bush said Iran’s response to a US-backed initiative aimed at resolving a standoff over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is a “positive” first step toward negotiations.
- Money manager Mario Gabelli has settled a civil lawsuit alleging he defrauded the US government by using “sham” companies to win cellular phone licenses.
BBC:
- President Putin has commended the cooperation between Russia and the US over Iran.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Internet longs, Networking longs and Commodity shorts. I covered some of my (QQQQ) and (IWM) shorts in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish, however there were a number of positives. I continue to believe the major averages are near a meaningful bottom. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.3% year over year last week vs. a 3.1% rise the prior week. The long-term average is a gain of around 2.5%. I expect to see retail sales decelerate back to average levels by next month.
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