Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Thursday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Farm Exports by U.S. May Surge to Record on Crop-Price Gains, Glauber Says. U.S. farm exports may surpass a 2008 record of $115.3 billion on surging corn, soybean and wheat prices, according to Joe Glauber, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s chief economist. Exports may exceed the August forecast of $113 billion for the year that began Oct. 1, Glauber said today in a telephone interview. “We very well could exceed the record if prices increase by enough,” Glauber said. Rising prices shouldn’t deter foreign buyers enough to reduce exports significantly because of high demand for U.S. goods, he said. “We’re the only game in town” for wheat, after Russia halted exports following a drought, he said.
  • Dubai's Worst Office Buildings Will Be Empty Forever, CBRE Says. Some Dubai office buildings are so ill-conceived and poorly located that they will never be occupied, while others may command no more than the cost of maintenance, according to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. “Some buildings will be permanently vacant and will never be let because they are wrongly located, they are of poor quality or have the wrong legal structure in place,” Nicholas Maclean, Middle East managing director for the U.S. property broker said in an interview. Buyers with no experience in property management flocked to purchase floors in planned office buildings before any work started, resulting in poorly finished office towers in inconvenient locations with multiple owners, Maclean said. Such places have to compete for tenants in a Dubai market with an overall vacancy rate of 40 percent, with newly developed areas on the outskirts hit the hardest. At least 20 million square feet (1.85 million square meters) of space, about 40 percent of Dubai’s existing office supply, will be added in the next four years, CBRE estimates. That will put further pressure on prices that slumped by 60 percent on average since the peak in mid-2008.
  • Securitization Flaws May Lead Investors to Fight Mortgage Deals. Potential paperwork errors on some of the $1.34 trillion of securitized home mortgages may give investors an opening to challenge the legality of deals, threatening to unnerve financial markets, according to Joshua Rosner, managing director at Graham Fisher & Co. Some loans to borrowers with poor credit before 2007 may not have been transferred to mortgage trusts in the manner required by their pooling and servicing agreements. That raises questions about the ownership of the loans and may allow investors to force lenders to buy back the securities, Rosner wrote yesterday in a note to clients. The failure to include MBS trust names on documents and to properly assign loans to the trust may encourage MBS holders to challenge the entire securitization, rather than press lenders to take back individual loans that were fraudulently issued, according to Rosner, whose firm advises investors and regulators. That could set off legal fights over almost all subprime MBS sold to investors.
  • Santander Funding at Inferior Rate to Inferior Bank Defines Being Spanish. Anyone wondering why the most profitable bank in the euro region pays more to borrow than some of the worst performers can find the answer in Spain, where high unemployment and a sputtering economy pushed up funding costs at Banco Santander SA. Santander sold 1 billion euros ($1.4 billion) of 4.125 percent, seven-year senior bonds last month with a AA rating that yield 156 basis points more than average market rates. Germany’s Commerzbank AG, which required a government rescue in 2008, issued 1 billion euros of 4 percent, 10-year senior debt with an A rating that yields 126 basis points more than the benchmark. Bondholders are penalizing Santander, based in the northern Spanish city of the same name, because the nation’s jobless rate -- at 20.5 percent in August -- was the highest in the euro region and the budget deficit was the third biggest last year as a proportion of gross domestic product. Moody’s Investors Service cut Spain’s debt rating in September because of doubts about the country’s ability to generate enough growth to meet its fiscal targets beyond 2011. “If Santander were a bank in Germany or France, it would be best in class,” said Inigo Lecubarri, who manages about $200 million at Abaco Financials Fund in London. “The problem they have is that their address is Spanish.”
  • SEC Withholding Internal Report on Goldman Sachs Suit, House's Issa Says. U.S. Representative Darrell Issa accused the Securities and Exchange Commission of withholding an internal review that evaluates whether politics drove the agency’s April lawsuit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Issa, in a letter sent to SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro today, said he directed his staff to work with the agency to obtain an unedited copy of the report “as soon as possible.” The SEC rejected the request, wrote Issa, the top Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. “Your refusal to fully cooperate with the committee’s investigation of the commission’s actions is simply unacceptable,” Issa wrote. The California lawmaker demanded that the agency give him an un-redacted copy of the report by the end of the day.
  • SEC Investigation Finds No Evidence Goldman Suit Was Timed to Help Obama. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s internal watchdog said he found no evidence the agency’s lawsuit against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was timed to help President Barack Obama win support for financial-regulation legislation that was being debated in Congress.
  • Foreclosure Fiasco Trail Leads to Washington: Jonathan Weil. What were banking regulators doing while some of the biggest U.S. lenders routinely filed false foreclosure documents in local courthouses around the country? In the case of IndyMac Federal Bank, it turns out the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was running the joint. This may help explain why the mortgage-servicing industry got away with such misbehavior for so long. The government, in one form or another, was doing it, too. The facts are there for anyone to see.
  • Yahoo(YHOO) Said to Hire Goldman to Handle Takeover Approaches.

Wall Street Journal:
  • Chile's Rescue Formula: '75% Science, 25% Miracle'. One by one, they emerged through a swinging door, out of a pit a half-mile deep, pumping fists and hugging family. A great-grandfather. A 44-year-old who promised a church wedding for his wife. A 19-year-old greeted by his father. And, lastly, the miners' 54-year-old foreman. Less than 24 hours after the extraction of the 33 miners began, Luis Urzua walked out of the Phoenix rescue capsule, approached Chilean President Sebastian Piñera and said, "Just as we previously agreed, I'm now handing over my shift to you." Mr. Piñera, smiling broadly, responded, "Like a good captain would do, you were the last one to abandon your ship." Rescuers cheered and hugged Mr. Urzua, and the president led the crowd in singing the national anthem.
  • How to Reform ObamaCare Starting Now. States should steer the mandated health-insurance exchanges in a pro-market direction and dare Washington to stop them. The Republican rallying cry during this election season has been a promise to "repeal and replace" ObamaCare. The problem is that through at least 2012 President Obama would veto any law repealing his signature health-care legislation. What, then, can Republicans do in the next two years? Look to the states.
  • Grocery Chains Increase Ad Spending Amid Price War. Supermarket chains—no longer the only place to buy the week's groceries—are pumping more money into advertising to fend off competition from mass discounters, drug stores and even dollar stores. The ad splashes are cutting into profit margins at a time when sales remain weak across the industry. Chains including Safeway Inc. and Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. are touting price cuts on thousands of items, a double whammy to profits: spending to entice customers to come in for lower-priced items.
  • Document Mess Hits Fannie, Freddie. Raising questions for the first time about the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the unfolding mortgage-foreclosure crisis, the two government-owned giants are reviewing the work of a Florida law firm they recommended to process foreclosures. Until now, Fannie and Freddie have been largely bystanders in the widening foreclosure scandal, because they don't directly service loans, or handle day-to-day management of mortgages. But their use of so-called foreclosure mills, law firms that specialize in quickly processing thousands of foreclosures on behalf of lenders, is dragging the companies into the latest crisis.
CNBC:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
IBD:
NY Times:
  • Ex- Overseer of Aut0 Industry Accepts Ban in S.E.C. Deal. Steven Rattner, the former car czar, has agreed to a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission over kickback claims involving the New York State pension fund, a person with knowledge of the negotiation said Wednesday. Mr. Rattner will accept a multiyear ban from the securities industry and pay a fine of more than $5 million, the person said. He is still in negotiations over a similar settlement with the office of the New York attorney general, Andrew M. Cuomo. The settlement, which is expected to be announced on Thursday, caps a multiyear investigation by the government into kickbacks paid to officials with New York’s pension fund. Earlier this month, Alan G. Hevesi, the state’s former comptroller, pleaded guilty to a corruption charge involving the state fund. Since leaving his post with the Obama administration’s auto task force over a year ago, Mr. Rattner has been advising Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York on his personal finances and writing a book about his tenure as car czar.
CNNMoney.com:
  • Oil, Gold, Corn... Oh My!. Commodity prices are surging across the board as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure from building speculation that the Federal Reserve is about to take action to aid the stumbling economy. The anticipation of the central bank flooding the economy with more dollars has weakened the U.S. currency and boosted the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. "Quantitative easing fears are propelling prices higher because the dollar is being devalued," said Flynn. "When there's a weaker dollar, people want to get away from the paper currency and start to want the actual commodity itself." "We might see a little unwinding of positions and prices go down here and there, but the fact that the Fed is coming out and saying it's opening the door to printing more money, you're going to have speculators and funds keep coming out and buying commodities," he added.
Star Tribune:
  • Republican Opponent Targets Frank's Flight on a Private Jet Provided by a Hedge Fund Manager. Rep. Barney Frank's Republican opponent says the Massachusetts congressman's private jet ride to the U.S. Virgin Islands, courtesy of a hedge fund manager, shows Frank is too cozy with the financial interests he oversees. Frank, a 15-term Democrat, faces a stronger-than-expected re-election fight against GOP challenger Sean Bielat, who is targeting Frank's role in dealing with the financial crisis.
AppleInsider:
The Daily Beast:
  • Who Needs George Soros, Anyway? “I don’t believe in standing in the way of an avalanche,” said the 80-year-old billionaire financier—whose Delphic pronouncements on the economy typically move markets—explaining why he isn’t dispensing his usual largesse this election cycle in support of Democratic causes and candidates.
Politico:
  • Ethanol Decision Sees as Corn Belt Pandering. The Obama administration’s decision Wednesday to allow more ethanol in gasoline was met with fury from environmentalists and Big Oil, but it could help Democrats in the nation’s Corn Belt. Less than three weeks before Election Day, the Environmental Protection Agency issued a long-awaited decision to allow 15 percent of the corn-based fuel in gasoline in new cars – a major boost from the current 10 percent. The timing of the announcement seems aimed at shoring up Democratic support in Midwestern states that President Obama carried in 2008, such as Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin, but where some of his fellow Democrats are now scrambling.
  • Obama Admission Inspires GOP. Senate Republicans on Wednesday seized on President Barack Obama’s admission to The New York Times that “there’s no such thing as shovel-ready projects,” an acknowledgement they say suggests the administration’s $814 billion economic stimulus plan is a failure.
USA Today:
  • Mine rescue scene: 'Chi! Le! Chile!' and 'God won'. Two shout-outs greet the world watching the spellbinding rescue of 33 trapped miners in Chile. "Chi! Chi! Chi! Le! Le!Le! Chile! Chile!" greets every man emerging from the capsule after riding back to the world from 69 days below the earth. And miner after miner has made his own shout-out -- to God -- in words or images that show their Christian faith sustained them.
  • Rising Fuel Costs Mean Higher Heating Bills This Winter. Households will spend more on heating this winter as fuel prices rise and colder weather than last year in the Northeast increases demand, the Energy Department said Wednesday.
Reuters:
  • Fed's Lacker Says Would Not Support More Easing. Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said on Wednesday he would not support further monetary easing, saying he is not very worried about subdued U.S. inflation readings. With additional Treasury bond purchases aimed at supporting the economy looking increasingly likely at the Fed's November meeting, Lacker appeared to be cementing his role as a hawk at the U.S. central bank and digging in his heels in opposition. "I am not yet convinced that inflation is likely to remain undesirably low," he told a conference sponsored by the Richmond Fed. That was a direct reference to a benchmark set by the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting body, for another round of bond buying in the Fed's last policy statement in September. "I said several weeks ago that I thought if the economic growth and inflation numbers came in the way I was expecting them to, I'd probably not support more easing," Lacker told reporters after a speech. "I'm kind of in the same place."
  • IDC Says Q3 PC Growth Weaker Than Expected. Worldwide sales of personal computers rose a less-than-expected 10.5 percent in the third-quarter, industry tracker IDC said on Wednesday, hampered by weak consumer spending in the United States. Global PC shipments totaled 89.3 million units in the July-September period, with the U.S. experiencing 3.8 percent growth versus IDC's expectation of near 11 percent. "Despite a sluggish start, the quarter ended with a good rally in September which could be a good prelude for what is ahead," said IDC analyst Jay Chou in a statement.
  • U.S. Senate Poised to Act on China Yuan - Lawmaker. The U.S. Senate is poised to pass legislation aimed at pressuring China to raise the value of its currency, unless Beijing works with the United States to address its concerns, a U.S. senator said on Wednesday.
  • Apollo(APOL) Withdraws Outlook, Warns on Enrollment Growth. Apollo Group Inc, the biggest for-profit U.S. education company, blamed an uncertain regulatory environment for withdrawing its 2011 outlook and warned of a significant drop in new enrollments, setting a dismal tone for an industry facing intense government scrutiny. Apollo stock fell 15 percent after the bell, and dragged down other education stocks which have been volatile for most of the year on fears that new regulations will chop off the rapid growth witnessed by the industry even last year.
Securities Times:
  • Reducing holdings of Treasuries is China's most-effective tool for dealing with the U.S., Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center, wrote in a commentary published today. China should ponder how to use its rolse as the U.S.'s biggest creditor when yuan appreciation is expected to cause the value of its foreign exchange reserves to shrink, Zhang wrote. This role should be used to counter outside pressure, he wrote. Cutting its holdings of Treasuries is also in China's long-term interests, Zhang wrote. The State Information Center is a research unit under the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planning agency.
China Securities Journal:
  • China has "basically completed" an investigation into loans taken by the financing vehicles of local governments and discovered "problems" with about 2 trillion yuan of the loans. There was 7.66 trillion yuan of outstanding loans taken by these financing vehicles as of the end of June. There is "serious risk" for the repayment of about 26% of that debt, according to the report.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (ADTN), target $41.
  • Reiterated Buy on (AAPL), target $350.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 -5.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 93.5 -3.5 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (FCS)/.39
  • (LSTR)/.49
  • (GWW)/1.82
  • (GOOG)/6.68
  • (AMD)/.06
  • (PGR)/.37
  • (SWY)/.31
  • (VMI)/1.09
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Trade Deficit for August is estimated to widen to -$44.0 Billion versus -$42.8 Billion in July.
  • The Producer Price Index for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in August.
  • The PPI Ex Food & Energy for September is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in August.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 445K versus 445K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4450K versus 4462K prior.
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,450,000 barrels versus a +3,088,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall to -1,500,000 barrels versus a -2,646,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are expected to fall by -1,150,000 barrels versus a -1,124,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.43% versus a -2.7% decline the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking, $13 Billion 30-Year Treasury Bonds Auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (TS) investor presentation and the (GPS) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Sovereign Debt Angst, Less Economic Fear, Tax Policy/Election Optimism, Rising QE2 Expectations


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 18.59 -1.80%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 -15.27%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -35.09%
  • NYSE Arms .89 +31.17%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 bps -3.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.83 bps -7.73%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 142.83 bps -.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 187.54 bps -4.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.0 -1 bp
  • TED Spread 17.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 206.0 +1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $150.80/Metric Tonne +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +3.10 +.9 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.05% +7 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +162 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Tech, Ag, Retail and Biotech long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the S&P 500 trades near session highs despite US housing worries and recent sharp equity gains. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Disk Drive, Gold, Oil Service, Alt Energy, Coal, Software, Construction, Homebuilding and Ag shares are especially strong, rising 2.0%+. Small-caps and cyclicals are outperforming. The Transportation Index is jumping +3.0% to 4,751.28, which is getting close to its high for the year of 4,812.87. (IYR) has traded well throughout the day. Lumber is surging another +4.1% and copper is +.8% higher. Lumber has gained +13.9% in 5 days and is at the highest level since mid-May. The Spain sovereign cds is dropping -4.12% to 202.86 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is falling -4.41% to 378.04 bps, the Greece sovereign cds is declining -3.34% to 688.14 bps and the Ireland sovereign cds is falling -3.5% to 420.24 bps. The ongoing collapse in the Euro Financial Sector CDS Index remains a major positive. As well, other key cds indices remain in their recent downtrends. On the negative side, Education, Gaming, Bank and Semi shares are slightly lower on the day. (XLF) is underperforming again. The 10-year yield is unch. at 2.43% despite equity gains. The major averages are getting short-term overbought again, however I still expect a test of this year's highs before the election. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, falling sovereign debt angst, buyout speculation, rising QE2 expectations, technical buying, less economic fear, investor performance angst and tax policy/election optimism.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value (+.84%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education +.02% 2) Banks +.15% 3) Medical Equipment +.25%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • IGTE, ADTN, THOR, ACOR, LLTC, JOE and CSH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WMB 2) GAP 3) XLU 4) NVS 5) AMAG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) JPM 2) TASR 3) HAL 4) HOS 5) WWE

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (+.88%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail +2.79% 2) Gold +2.14% 3) Homebuilding +1.65%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AIXG, VECO, PHG, SNP, PVTB, TKC, SWC, BBL, TOT, SCVL, BID, PBY, CRI, SIGA, JOBS, MYGN, WATG, ASML, PAAS, SSRI, QGEN, HCSG, TNDM, OCLR, MLNX, BIDU, SCVL, DECK, PRGS, SHPGY, INFY, ZNH, WMB, CSX and SRX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DLTR 2) WMB 3) CSX 4) VCI 5) HRB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AAPL 2) GOOG 3) INTC 4) CSX 5) QCOM

Wednesday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

  • Japan's Machinery Orders Unexpectedly Gained in August. Japanese machinery orders unexpectedly advanced in August, a sign that a recovery in earnings may encourage companies to spend on plant and equipment even as the yen surges. Factory orders rose 10.1 percent from July, when they increased 8.8 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 3.9 percent decline.
  • Stimulus of $1 Trillion Adds Nothing to Deficit: Frank Aquila. Imagine if American companies could add more than $1 trillion to their domestic coffers in an instant without selling a subsidiary, issuing a single share or incurring a penny of debt. While every company would no doubt use this cash differently, the windfall could fund a return of capital to shareholders through increased dividends and share buybacks. Or it could be used to repay debt, fund capital expenditures or make strategic acquisitions. How the companies would deploy the money doesn’t matter. The important thing is that the cash would be put to work. So why hasn’t this already happened? The answer is clear: U.S. tax policies penalize the repatriation of so-called foreign-source income, essentially the profits earned by foreign subsidiaries of American corporations. This cash pile isn’t being hoarded or held on the sidelines, as many pundits have suggested; rather, it is being kept offshore by our own tax structure.
  • CFTC to Scrutinize Algorithmic Trading After May Market Plunge. The top U.S. commodity regulator will review algorithmic trading and other practices such as “spoofing” and “quote stuffing” as part of the largest rewrite of Wall Street rules since the 1930s. “Weekly we hear concerns about high frequency traders and how they are affecting the markets, positively and negatively,” Commissioner Michael Dunn said at a meeting in Washington today. “Phrases like ‘quote stuffing’ and ‘spoofing’ are bantered about as ways that algorithmic traders are gaming the marketplace.”
  • Nobel Winner Liu, Quiet Literary Critic, Terrifies Beijing: George Walden. Two steps forward, one back. That’s the pattern with modern China, and today looks like a “one back” moment. First Chinese leaders pursue a beggar-my-neighbor currency policy. Next they denounce as “obscene” the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s award of the Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, a literary critic and former professor locked up for 11 years for saying what he thinks. When the world objects, they put his wife under house arrest. For good measure, this nation of 1.3 billion souls threatens to retaliate against the 5 million good folk of Norway. And who provoked this loathing? An author whose books include “The Fog of Metaphysics,” a review of Western philosophies. Whatever the qualities of the Chinese leadership, oversensitivity to world opinion isn’t among them. The coincidence of the Nobel controversy with the currency war will make many people stop to ask where the new China is going. The answer: in two directions at once.

Wall Street Journal:
  • Fed Chief Gets Set to Apply Lessons of Japan's History. Mr. Bernanke is preparing for a potentially important policy speech Friday, when he could detail his thinking on the Fed's next steps at a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston on monetary policy in a low-inflation environment. The conference is a reprise of a 1999 conference at which Mr. Bernanke and other academics took Japanese officials to task for failing to get their economy moving. Buried in Mr. Bernanke's earlier writings on Japan are hints of how he is shaping the Fed's responses to today's slow recovery.
  • First Miner is Rescued in Chile. Florencio Avalos, the first of 33 miners to be rescued, surfaces after 69 days underground. A rescue worker rode a specially designed capsule into a mine where 33 men have been trapped half a mile underground for 69 days, reaching them about 15 minutes later in the first phase of a complex operation to bring the miners to the surface. Cheers and clapping broke out at San Jose mine as rescuer Manuel Gonzalez entered the capsule.
  • Iraq Oil is 'Game Changer'. Production Revival Will Challenge Big Suppliers Like Saudis, IEA Chief Says. The revival in Iraqi oil production will be a "game-changer" for global oil supplies and a challenge for other big oil producers like Saudi Arabia, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, said in an interview that 20 years from now, Iraq could be pumping two to three times more than the 2.5 million barrels a day it currently produces—"comforting" oil markets worried about shrinking supplies, and possibly buffering against price spikes.
  • NFL Braces for a Costly Labor Fight. As Sponsors Get Jittery, League Says it May Lose $1 Billion Even If Next Season Is Saved. Even as the NFL romps through a season of record television ratings, the owners, and some of the league's key sponsors and corporate partners, are bracing for what could be an expensive and debilitating player lockout next spring.
  • Using the iPad to Connect. Parents, Therapists Use Apple Tablet to Communicate With Special Needs Kids.
  • J.P. Morgan(JPM), BofA(BAC), Wells Fargo(WFC) Tops in Foreclosed Home Loans. The banks with the largest dollar amounts of foreclosed home loans on their books are J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Corp. and Bank of AmericaWells Fargo & Co., according to analyst firm SNL Financial. Several large banks, including J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, have instituted widespread foreclosure halts because of worries about documentation problems. The halts come at a time when many of the biggest lenders are struggling to work through the nonperforming assets still weighing on their books. J.P. Morgan has $19.5 billion, or 7.5% of its 1- to 4-family mortgage loans, in foreclosure, according to data from SNL. Bank of America has $18.7 billion, or 4.39%, and Wells Fargo has $17.5 billion, or 4.74%. The three big mortgage lenders have billions of dollars more in servicing rights on loans in foreclosure. Bank of America has $88 billion of loans it services for other lenders where the properties are in foreclosure; J.P. Morgan has $54.5 billion and Wells Fargo has $36.4 billion. The data are as of June 30.
  • CDS Aren't Always Sound Indicators of Credit Risk - Fitch. Credit default swaps, derivatives that compensate investors when a company defaults on its debt, are commonly used to assess the relative riskiness of senior corporate bonds, but are not always an accurate predictor of future defaults, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings. That's because the behavior of CDS market participants can distort the perception of a company's risks, the ratings agency said. "It is important to realize there are other factors that can move CDS pricing that are separate from the reference entity's creditworthiness," Robert Grossman, group managing director at Fitch Ratings, said.
  • More Ethanol to Be Allowed in Cars. The Obama administration plans to allow higher levels of ethanol for gasoline used by newer cars, a step that would benefit corn growers but which has been strongly opposed by auto makers, livestock ranchers, oil refiners and some public-health advocates. As early as Wednesday, the Environmental Protection Agency plans to announce it will allow ethanol levels in gasoline blends to be as high as 15% for vehicles made since 2007, up from 10% currently, according to two people familiar with the matter. For cars made between 2001 and 2006, the agency will say it is awaiting the outcome of additional research and not ready to announce a decision. The agency's move is likely to be strongly challenged by livestock ranchers, auto makers and oil refiners.
CNBC:
  • US 30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Again: Zillow. Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell for a fourth straight week, real estate website Zillow.com said on Tuesday. Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed mortgages, the most widely used loan, were 4.13 percent Tuesday afternoon, down from 4.16 percent at the same time last week, according to Zillow Mortgage Marketplace.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
New York Post:
  • Broken Promises. ObamaCare's First Victims. This month, McDonald's warned that the health-care reform law passed in March could force it to drop health coverage for some 30,000 workers. A few days later, 3M announced that starting in 2013 it will no longer provide health-insurance coverage to its retirees. That came on the heels of a decision by Harvard Pilgrim, Massachusetts' second-largest insurer, to drop its Medicare Advantage health-insurance program at year's end, forcing 22,000 senior citizens in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine back into traditional Medicare. Then there's the Principal Financial Group, which recently decided it was getting out of the health-insurance business. Roughly 840,000 people will likely lose their insurance as a result. This is just the tip of the iceberg.
IBD:
CNNMoney.com:
  • Mexican Investigator in Falcon Lake Case is Beheaded, Officials Say. The lead Mexican investigator in the Falcon Lake case, Rolando Armando Flores Villegas, has been killed, his severed head delivered Tuesday in a suitcase to the Mexican military, officials told CNN. "His head was delivered to the army garrison this morning in a suitcase after he failed to report back home last night," Zapata County, Texas, Sheriff Sigifredo Gonzalez Jr. said.
Forbes:
  • Deepwater Drilling Ban Lifted, Malaise Remains Intact. So the Obama administration has lifted the deepwater drilling moratorium. Unfortunately for the President, it’s going to be too late to regenerate many offshore jobs before election day, but we’ll take it. Before the Deepwater Horizon disaster there were 33 floating drilling rigs at work in the gulf. Today that’s down to just 6, with half of those doing plugging and abandonment work. Many of the rigs have been sent on long-term contracts (at rates ranging from $225,000 to $400,000 per day) to Brazil and west Africa. It’ll take years for them to come back.
Politico:
  • Mixed White House Signals on Stimulus. President Barack Obama appears to be backing away from an election-season push for a second stimulus of $50 billion in transportation projects, according to transportation industry officials and congressional leaders who say the signs are unmistakable. One clear signal: The president never mentioned his stimulus plan at a White House event Monday with governors, mayors and transportation leaders that was supposed to be dedicated to the $50 billion proposal. Instead, the president emphasized a longer-term effort to pass a $450 billion, six-year infrastructure plan.
  • Global Ban Ordered on 'Don't Ask'. A federal judge has ordered a worldwide halt to enforcement of the Defense Department’s "don't ask, don't tell" policy regarding gays in the military. U.S. District Court Judge Virginia Phillips issued the injunction Tuesday after finding last month that the policy – made law by Congress in 1993 – violates the Constitutional rights of service members. She acted on a lawsuit brought by the Log Cabin Republicans, a political organization of gay conservatives.
Reuters:
  • Intel's(INTC) Q4 Outlook Sets Upbeat Tone for Tech Earnings. Intel Corp forecast upbeat fourth-quarter sales and margins as resilient demand from emerging markets and corporations offset weak consumer spending, raising hopes that the technology sector could end 2010 on a strong note. Shares of Intel and rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), which have warned about weak consumer demand for computers, climbed 1 percent in after-hours trade.
  • US Mortgage Bonds Steady Despite Foreclosure Flap.
  • US Corporate Credit Improvement May Be Nearing End - Moody's. Improvement in U.S. corporate credit quality may be nearing an end as companies use debt to boost share valuations and large impending debt maturities risk sparking a resurgence of defaults by risky borrowers, Moody's Investors Service said on Tuesday.
  • Investors Earmark $281 Billion for Global Property in 2011 - Report. An estimated $280.6 billion of capital will be available to invest in global commercial real estate in 2011, with the U.S. market drawing the most buyer interest as it bottoms out, a report said on Wednesday.
  • CSX(CSX) Profit Tops Street View; Shares Rise. CSX Corp reported a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit on Tuesday, citing rising freight volumes in nearly all its markets. Shares in CSX, which operates a 21,000-mile network across 23 U.S. states and two Canadian provinces, rose 1.7 percent in post-market electronic trading.
Financial Times:
  • Fears of Global Currency War Rise. Thailand is introducing a tax on foreign holdings of bonds, the latest in a string of attempts by emerging economies to curb destabilising capital inflows amid fears of a global currency war.
The Guardian:
  • Brussels Plans Stirct New Controls for Offshore Oil Drilling. The European commission is to reveal plans for tougher controls on offshore oil and gas drilling tomorrow. It would force national governments to abide by rules set in Brussels and extend liability for oil companies in the event of a disaster, The Guardian has learned. The commission will also call for a moratorium on "complex" drilling projects in Europe until the lessons of the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have been digested – a move that has been rejected by Britain. If the commission proposals became European law they would have far-reaching effects on the UK oil industry. More than half the offshore rigs in the EU are in British waters.
The Standard:
  • Bank Regulator Hits Out at Speculators. China Banking Regulatory Commission chief Liu Mingkang said intervention is necessary to curb speculation in the mainland property market. And instituting financial policies and imposing property taxes to curb speculation does not amount to suppressing the property industry in the mainland, the regulator told CCTV. The mainland property market heated up once again in August and September, after cooling somewhat in May to July, according to the CBRC's observation. That signaled the resurfacing of property speculation in the secondary market during the period, with the majority of transactions focused on mid- and high- end houses. "Such big transactions prove that buyers are only purchasing flats to sell and they are not end-users," Liu said. "It is wrong to use property as an investment tool to make a profit as it does not comply with the government's policy." During the first week of October, house transactions in Shanghai jumped 41.9 percent from a month earlier to 425,700 square meters, according to Caing.com. Meanwhile, average selling prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in August rose 10.6 percent, 9.54 percent, 7 percent and 6.9 percent, respectively, from a month ago, data from property agencies showed.
South China Morning Post:
  • A group of former Chinese officials has called on the government to end media censorship in an open letter published online. The letter said the lack of free speech in Ch9ina is a "scandal." Signatories of the letter include Li Rui, former deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party's organization department and an ex-secretary for Mao Zedong; and Hu Jiwei, former editor-in-chief of the People's Daily.
China Securities Journal:
  • China will become "extremely cautious" in raising interest rates in order to prevent hot money inflows and to control the pace of yuan appreciation, Zhang Monan, a researcher with the State Information Center, wrote in a commentary published today. China may be forced to abandon its independent interest rate policy stance as it faces a slew of challenges such as inflation, rapidly rising asset prices and capital inflows, Zhang wrote. Excess liquidity resulting from quantitative monetary easing in major economies is set to pose an increasingly grimmer challenge to China's economy in the next few years, Zhang wrote.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China aims to cut energy use per unit of gross domestic product by 17% from this year over the next five years, citing a person involved in the drafting of a government plan.
Evening Recommendations
Morgan Stanley:
  • Reiterated Overweight on (VMW), target $90.
Keybanc:
  • Rated (ATK) Buy, target $93.
  • Rated (FLIR) Buy, target $35.
  • Rated (ORB) Buy, target $20.
  • Rated (AVAV) Buy, target $31.
Wells Fargo:
  • Rated (CA) and (CHKP) Outperform.
RBC Capital:
  • Rated (ALL) Outperform, target $38.
  • Rated (PGR) Outperform, target $24.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 97.0 +2.75 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (HST)/.11
  • (ADTN)/.43
  • (JPM)/.88
  • (APOL)/1.29
  • (IGTE)/.21
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Import Price Index for September is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.6% gain in August.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bernanke speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, $21 Billion 10-Year Treasury Notes Auction, (CHK) analyst meeting, (WMT) annual meeting and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Rising QE2 Expectations, Tax Policy/Election Optimism, Falling Sovereign Debt Angst, Buyout Speculation


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 18.88 -.42%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 -2.36%
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +46.34%
  • NYSE Arms .73 -46.23%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 96.76 bps +1.0%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.08 bps -2.65%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 143.67 bps -3.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 196.15 bps -1.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.0 unch.
  • TED Spread 17.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% unch.
  • Yield Curve 205.0 +1 bp
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $147.90/Metric Tonne +1.56%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +2.20 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98% unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +87 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Tech, Ag and Biotech long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the S&P 500 trades near session highs despite morning weakness and recent gains. On the positive side, Airline, Restaurant, Bank, Disk Drive, Semi, Computer and Oil Service shares are especially strong, rising 1.0%+. Small-caps are outperforming. (XLF)/(IYR) have traded well throughout the day. The S&P GSCI Ag Spot index is jumping again, rising +2.12% today and lumber is gaining +4.27%. China Import Iron Ore Spot has risen +6.22% in 5 days. Gold is pulling back -.29%. The 10-year yield is rising +2 bps to 2.41%. The ongoing collapse in the Euro Financial Sector CDS Index is a major positive. As well, other key cds indices remain in their recent downtrends. On the negative side, Road & Rail, Coal and Oil Tanker shares are under mild pressure, falling more than 1.0%. Cyclicals are underperforming today. Weekly retail sales rose +2.5% versus a +2.6% gain the prior week and down from a +3.0% gain the first week of September. The CBOE total put/call opened this morning at an elevated 1.89, which was the highest since June 24th, right before the market made an important low on July 1. I suspect the DJIA may make a serious attempt to take out its high for the year at 11,258 before the election. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, falling sovereign debt angst, buyout speculation, rising QE2 expectations, tech sector strength, technical buying, investor performance angst and tax policy/election optimism.