Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.13%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% +4.0 basis points
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.23% +2.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.0%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +10.9 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.9 +15.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.8 -.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.27 +.18: Growth Rate +12.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 unch.
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 470.61 +.48: Growth Rate +24.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +6.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
- US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% +.1 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 +4.0 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +4.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 51.4% (+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.8%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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