Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.45 -.21%
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.22% +1.0 basis point
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.14% -3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.2 -.6 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -.4 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.2 +5.9 points
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(489 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 289.55 +.33: Growth Rate +10.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.5 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% +9.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +27.9% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 475.35 +1.99: Growth Rate +16.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.7 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 +1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 +12.0 basis points
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
- US Yield Curve 59.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% +130.0 basis points
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.4% -1.0 percentage point
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% +6.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 -1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
- Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (+3.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -563 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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