Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth (-2.24%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -3.43% 2) Gaming -3.10% 3) Networking -2.95%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• BBRG, CIEN, HOGS, FXEN, JOBS, GNET, TDSC, CETV, SXCI, PICO, DIOD, BRKS, ATML, QLIK, CWEI, IPGP, NWS, IVAC, JDSU, GLBC, EPB, LXU, BKS, PXP, IL, BYI, PRX, ALJ, MWW, WMS, SMH and DIOD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KRE 2) AMAT 3) SBUX 4) RSX 5) SMH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WMS 2) STI 3) FIG 4) GM 5) NEM

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value (-.19%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +2.40% 2) Computer Hardware +1.81% 3) Restaurants +.86%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WDC, STX, JRCC, VRUS, SVVS, AREX, IOSP, EXK, HIT, ARB, MBI, AHD, MTZ, PVA, CRR, RES, APL, TZA and ABG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CAG 2) MYL 3) WDC 4) EXK 5) HDY
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ZIXI 2) CW 3) DRCO 4) KNSY 5) DMD

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume
  

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Qaddafi Escalates War Against Rebels as Libyan Conflict Deepens. Libyan troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi used artillery and helicopter gunships in their effort to block the rebels’ advance west from the oil hub of Ras Lanuf toward the leader’s hometown of Sirte. Rebel fighters battled reinforced pro-Qaddafi troops yesterday around Bin Jawad, 110 miles (160 kilometers) east of Sirte, as ambulances rushed the wounded to the hospital in rebel-controlled Ras Lanuf, according to an Associated Press reporter on the scene. At least six people were killed in the fighting, and a French journalist for France 24 TV was among 60 wounded, AP said. Clashes during the past two days have become more deadly as the rebels moved along the Libyan coast toward Tripoli and government troops escalated their use of force in attempting to retake the rebel-held cities of Misurata, about 90 miles east of the capital, and Zawiyah to the west.
• Saudi Council of Islamic Scholars Warns Against Demonstrations. Saudi Arabia’s Council of Senior Islamic Scholars warned against protests in the kingdom, the Saudi Press Agency said today. The council condemned demonstrations in the kingdom as forbidden, the Riyadh-based Saudi Press Agency said, citing a statement from the scholars. Reforms cannot be realized through protests and “means that cause division,” the news service said cited the council as saying. Public demonstrations are usually prohibited in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter and an absolute monarchy ruled by six kings since it was established in 1932. Websites have called for a nationwide “Day of Rage” on March 11 and March 20 in Saudi Arabia, according to Human Rights Watch. Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry said yesterday that demonstrations, marches and sit-ins are “strictly” prohibited under the kingdom’s laws, according to the Saudi Press Agency. Protests “contradict” Islam and the values of society, the Riyadh-based news service cited the official as saying. They harm public interest, infringe on the rights of others, spread “chaos” and lead to bloodshed, the official said. The Senior Council of Scholars also called on protesters to resort to “counseling” in accordance with Islam, the news service said. Abdulaziz Bin Abdullah Al al-Sheikh, the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, heads the council. Saudi security forces detained 22 Shiite Muslims on March 3 in the eastern city of al-Qatif during a demonstration demanding the release of Shiite prisoners, human rights activist Jaafar al-Shayeb said today. “They are all detained at the police station in Dhahran,” al-Shayeb said in a phone interview today. The Shiites have been holding protests on Thursdays and Fridays for the past three weeks, demanding the release of prisoners held without trial, he said. Shiite Muslims in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia held two demonstrations on March 3 to call for the release of prisoners. About 100 people staged the first protest in the Shiite Muslim village of Awwamiya in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. A similar number of people later demonstrated in the city of al-Qatif under strong police presence. A third demonstration, demanding the release of Sheikh Tawfiq al-Amir, was held March 4 in al-Hofuf in the Eastern Province, according to Tawfiq al-Saif, a prominent Shiite activist from the eastern region, and a second activist, who declined to be identified for security reasons. Al-Amir, a Shiite Muslim cleric, was arrested on Feb. 27 after he called for a constitutional monarchy and equal rights, Human Rights Watch said in a statement on its website. Awwamiya, a village north of Qatif on the kingdom’s Persian Gulf, was the scene of much larger demonstrations in 2009 after police sought to arrest Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, who had said in a sermon that Saudi Shiites may be able to seek a state of their own in the future.
• Options traders are betting more than ever that crude oil is heading to $200 a barrel as some websites call for a "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia and anti-government protests spread in the Middle East and North Africa. Open interest for "call" options to buy New York crude for June delivery at $200 a barrel have escalated to the highest since the options started trading in July 2009 amid worsening civil unrest in Libya and rare demonstrations in Saudi Arabia.
  
• Oil Rises to 29-Month High on Mideast Supply Risk, U.S. Economy Outlook. Oil surged to the highest in 29 months in New York as unrest in Libya renewed concern supply disruptions may spread while signs of U.S. economic recovery stoked speculation fuel demand will rise. Futures gained as much as 1.4 percent after fighting between Libyan rebels and troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi intensified. Citigroup Inc. raised its Brent crude estimate as the threat of output disruptions supports a “fear premium.” Prices closed 6.7 percent higher last week after a U.S. government report showed the nation’s jobless rate fell in February to the lowest since April 2009. Crude for April delivery increased as much as $1.50 to $105.92 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest intraday price since Sept. 29, 2008. The contract was at $105.73 at 10:33 a.m. Singapore time. Futures have risen 29 percent from a year earlier.
• Wheat Planting Falls to Four-Year Low in Russia Amid Export Ban. Russia’s ban on grain exports means the country’s farmers will plant the fewest wheat fields in four years, another sign that global prices will keep rising. Wheat plantings in the country, once the second-biggest exporter, will drop 2.3 percent to 64.2 million acres for this year’s crop, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of as many as 19 producers, traders and analysts. Farmers can’t plant more because the ban imposed after last summer’s drought is limiting farm income. Diesel was 30 percent higher than a year earlier in January and OAO Acron, Russia’s third-biggest nitrogen fertilizer producer, raised some prices by more than 12 percent for the first half. The 84 million-metric-ton grain harvest anticipated in the survey is 1 million tons below what the government says it needs to consider lifting the seven-month-old export ban. The absence of Russian supplies comes as the U.S. says global grain inventories will drop 13 percent, riots topple leaders in Tunisia and Egypt and governments hoard food. Russian policies may mean no reversal in the 94 percent rally that began in June after drought and flooding from Canada to Russia ruined crops. The surge contributed to what the United Nations says were record-high global food prices last month. The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities rose 47 percent since June.
• Inflation Endangering China 'Dream' Spurs Wen Pledge on Prices. Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledge to stem inflation in China underscored forecasts for more interest-rate increases as a jump in food and housing prices risks sparking public anger. Wen, in his opening speech to the annual National People’s Congress conclave in Beijing two days ago, said that reining in consumer and property prices is the nation’s top priority. That will be welcome to fruit vendor Song Zhiqiang, 56, of the southwestern city of Guiyang, who says: “My rent’s doubled in a year and my family’s food budget has increased to 3,000 yuan,” or $456, from 1,200 yuan. Policy makers’ 4 percent inflation target for this year was exceeded by almost a percentage point in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Without higher deposit rates to encourage saving, and a stronger currency to ease import costs, the risk is that price pressures will keep escalating in coming months. “The skew of risks is very much for an extended period of uncontained inflation,” said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “The danger is that inflation spikes as high as 10 percent in the third quarter, causing households tremendous pain and fuelling widespread social discontent.” Additional increases in benchmark interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements may help to bring price pressures under control, Maguire said. Nomura Holdings Inc. forecasts 0.75 percentage point of interest-rate increases by year-end, along with gains in banks’ reserve ratios. With real-estate values climbing in the aftermath of the record credit boom unleashed during the global financial crisis, slums have emerged in cities including Beijing and Shanghai as migrant workers and cash-strapped urban youth seek an affordable place to live. “My dream of owning a house is drifting further away because home prices have increased by a huge margin, outpacing my salary gains,” said Tao Jianyi, 32, an electrical engineer in Beijing. “The government has a lot to do to make homes affordable and within the reach of ordinary income earners.” An online call for protests in China, inspired by uprisings in the Middle East, has highlighted the risk of social unrest. The government has deployed hundreds of police in Beijing and Shanghai after an open letter called for “jasmine” rallies, named after the January uprising in Tunisia that overthrew President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Across the country, consumer prices rose an annual 4.9 percent in January as food costs jumped, while in Beijing, new home prices climbed 6.8 percent. In February, inflation was 4.8 percent, according to the median forecast in a survey of 22 economists. That number is due to be announced this week. “People in China are very unhappy,” said Huang Yiping, an economics professor at Peking University in Beijing. “Inflation driven by food prices is very destabilizing for the economy and society because it’s reducing everybody’s purchasing power and mostly it damages the welfare of low-income households.”
• Euro Rally Masking Political Discord as EU Leaders Battle Debt. The euro’s two-month rally against the dollar is running into renewed rifts over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis just as optimism about the U.S. economy increases. Bolstered by the prospect of higher European Central Bank interest rates as soon as next month, the euro has climbed almost 9 percent against the dollar from this year’s low. Bets by futures traders on more strength are at levels that indicated reversals in the past. The euro has gained about half as much versus a group of nine developed-nation peers including the pound, franc and Swedish krona, Bloomberg Correlated-Weighted Currency Indexes show.
• Egypt Yields Hit Two-Year High as Bourse Closure, Probe Sends GDRs Sinking. Egypt’s borrowing costs are rising to the highest in more than two years and stocks listed overseas are tumbling as the Cairo exchange’s five-week shutdown and new rules on shareholder disclosure keep investors away. The Ministry of Finance sold 3 billion pounds ($509 million) of bonds yesterday, 1.5 billion pounds less than planned, as yields on 266-day notes climbed 31 basis points from the last auction to 12.47 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The benchmark EGX 30 Index (EGX30) plunged 16 percent in its last two trading sessions before the closure. Investors have protested outside the bourse in Cairo to demand that trades in the final days be canceled and that shares be suspended in companies with links to the former Mubarak regime. Egypt risks becoming “a pariah of an investment destination,” said Jeff Chowdhry, the London-based head of emerging-market equities at F&C, which oversees about $163 billion worldwide. “If they value foreign investment in their stock market, they should get that market open immediately and take off any restrictions in terms of having too cumbersome administrative requirements.”
• Copper may fall in the next month amid a "soft patch" that has resulted in ample stockpiles and a balanced or small surplus of supplies over demand, Macquarie Group Ltd. said. The price may fall to the "low $9,000s" a metric ton.
• JPMorgan(JPM) Ranks No.1 in Bond Fees as Low Rates Spur Refinancing. Spurred by declining interest rates, banks in 2010 capped off the biggest two-year bond sale binge on record. Corporate bond sales of $2.8 trillion were the second largest on record behind 2009’s $3.1 trillion. Corporate and sovereign bond deals around the world generated a total of $14.9 billion in fees for bankers, down from $15.5 billion in 2009, according to data compiled for Bloomberg Markets magazine’s seventh annual ranking of the best- paid investment banks.

Wall Street Journal:

• Bahrain Opposition Steps Up Pressure. Tens of thousands of Bahraini opposition demonstrators encircled a sprawling government compound Sunday in a gathering timed to coincide with a cabinet meeting, amid growing pressure on the ruling family to accept sweeping reforms. In an escalation of a strategy that has seen opposition demonstrators target key government ministries, protesters early on Sunday took up positions at each of the government complex's four gates and repeated calls for the fall of the government. Behind the gates, hundreds of riot police stood guard, while police helicopters circled overhead.
• U.S. Wavers on 'Regime Change'. After weeks of internal debate on how to respond to uprisings in the Arab world, the Obama administration is settling on a Middle East strategy: help keep longtime allies who are willing to reform in power, even if that means the full democratic demands of their newly emboldened citizens might have to wait. Instead of pushing for immediate regime change—as it did to varying degrees in Egypt and now Libya—the U.S. is urging protesters from Bahrain to Morocco to work with existing rulers toward what some officials and diplomats are now calling "regime alteration." The approach has emerged amid furious lobbying of the administration by Arab governments, who were alarmed that President Barack Obama had abandoned Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and worried that, if the U.S. did the same to the beleaguered king of Bahrain, a chain of revolts could sweep them from power, too, and further upend the region's stability.
• U.S. May Reject Off-Shore Drilling Permits Due to Ruling. The Obama administration says it may have to reject seven permits for deep-water drilling that have become the subject of high-profile legal and political battles if a federal judge in New Orleans forces the government to make a quick decision on the applications.
• Office Rents Dip On Park Avenue. Thanks to the economic downturn, businesses looking for Manhattan office space are finding something that many thought had gone the way of the $1 slice of pizza: a high-quality Park Avenue address for way under $100 a square foot.
• Wisconsin Democrats May Return Soon. Playing a game of political chicken, Democratic senators who fled Wisconsin to stymie restrictions on public-employee unions said Sunday they planned to come back from exile soon, betting that even though their return will allow the bill to pass, the curbs are so unpopular they'll taint the state's Republican governor and legislators.
• Fed Unlikely to Remove Its Economic Stimulus Just Yet. Federal Reserve officials have grown more confident that a self-sustaining economic recovery is taking root in the U.S., but they want to see more evidence before they seriously consider how and when to pull back the enormous amounts of stimulus they pumped into the financial system.
• Shale Lifts Prospects in Ohio. Struggling Region Begins to Cash In as Oil Firms Rush to Buy Drilling Rights. An oil-rich underground layer of rock, called the Utica Shale, has sparked a leasing frenzy and the prospect of a new flow of cash and jobs to a development-starved corner of the Rust Belt.

Bloomberg Businessweek:

• Hedge Fund Bull Bets Hit Four-Year High After Trailing S&P 500. As the rally that drove the S&P 500 up 95 percent begins its third year, more hedge funds are speculating stocks will advance than at any time since 2007, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research and BarclayHedge Ltd. While money managers playing catch-up with the market’s gains have helped the benchmark index advance 5.1 percent in 2011, it also may deplete the pool of new buyers. Hedge funds, largely unregulated investment vehicles that aim to make money whether markets rise or fall, took advantage of record-low interest rates to increase borrowings in January to the highest level since October 2007, according to data compiled by New York-based NYSE Euronext. Margin debt peaked in March 2000 and July 2007, before the S&P 500 began a 57 percent drop that bottomed at 676.53 on March 9, 2009. A gauge compiled by TrimTabs and BarclayHedge measuring how heavily hedge funds are invested in stocks rose to 33 percent in January, the last month data are available, from the 29 percent average since 2000. The measure peaked at 66 percent in August 2006 and bottomed at 9.5 percent in June 2007, the data show. Shares borrowed and sold to profit from declines dropped four straight months to 3.3 percent of all stock at the end of January, according to data compiled by NYSE Euronext.
• China Adding to $1 Trillion of Treasuries Limits Rise in Yields. Investors outside the U.S. have boosted their holdings of longer-maturity Treasuries to the highest level since the credit markets froze in 2008, helping curb rising yields amid concern inflation is accelerating. International buyers held 90 percent of their $4.44 trillion of U.S. government debt in notes and bonds as of December, the same as in September 2008 when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.

CNBC:

• US Corn Belt Braces for Major Flooding in Spring.
• Food, Not Oil, Bigger Threat to Global Inflation?
  

IBD:

• Triquint(TQNT) Overcomes Runaway Demand.

NY Times:

• Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software. Thanks to advances in artificial intelligence, “e-discovery” software can analyze documents in a fraction of the time for a fraction of the cost. In January, for example, Blackstone Discovery of Palo Alto, Calif., helped analyze 1.5 million documents for less than $100,000.

CNNMoney:

• Traders 'Short' Dollar as Currency Loses Attraction. Hedge funds and forex dealers are betting record amounts against the dollar, reflecting a growing belief that the US currency has lost its haven appeal and that eurozone interest rates will soon rise. As the crisis in the Middle East has worsened, the latest exchange data show that traders are selling "short" the currency. The big US fiscal deficit and concerns about the effect of rising oil prices have been blamed by some for the dollar's slide. Figures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are often used as a proxy for hedge fund activity, showed that short dollar positions surged from 200,564 contracts in the week ending February 22 to 281,088 on March 1. This meant that the value of bets against the dollar on the CME rose $11.5bn in the week to March 1 to $39bn, $3bn more than the previous record of $36bn in 2007. In contrast, speculators have added to their euro holdings amid expectations that the European Central Bank will soon raise interest rates to head off rising inflation.
• Gas Prices Top $3.50.

Forbes:

• "Necessary" Bank Bailouts Harm the Economy, Wreck the Banks.

Business Insider:

• A Disturbing Counterpoint to Wen Jiabao's Big Speech on Social Harmony.
• President Obama's "Half-Way" Math On Deficit Cuts Doesn't Even Come Close. President Obama claims he is meeting Republicans "half-way" on Republican plans to reduce the deficit by $61 billion. "Half-way" is $11 billion ($10.5 billion to be more precise). My math strongly suggests the president needs math lessons.
• Albert Edwards on the Surging Costs of Food and Energy Eating up American Wages. The surging costs of food and energy are eating up U.S. wage growth, and things could get even worse, according to Societe Generale's Albert Edwards.
• Fox News The Only Network Willing to Comment on Clinton's Al Jazerra Remarks. So far Fox News is the only network to comment on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's fairly stunning remarks the other day that Al Jazeera was winning the information race. Said Clinton:
• Toward a Fascist Pakistan. This post by Ms. MacDonald gives you some sense of how much recent events in Pakistan have shaken those who love it. It was written after Pakistan's Minister for Minorities, Shahbaz Bhatti, was assassinated near his mother's home. Mr. Bhatti was killed precisely because he stood in opposition to lunacy.

Zero Hedge:

• Goldman's(GS)Hatzius Launches Pre-Emptive Mea Culpa.
• The Two Most Important Charts for the Near-Term Future of Oil Prices. Crude Oil non-commercial net specs are at an all time high: well over 100% more than during the oil time highs in crude in 2008.

LA Times:

• Grand Dream Loses Sheen in Glare of Daylight. L.A. community colleges' green energy plan proves wildly impractical. The blunders cost taxpayers $10 million.
• Pot Dispensaries Turn Against L.A.'s Marijuana Tax Proposal.
  

Free Republic:

• Nancy Morgan: "Was The Economic Crisis Manufactured?" Nancy Morgan at American Thinker has a different take on the timing of our economic crisis, its cause, and its intended outcome. Was this "a very high stakes poker game with the prize being the White House?", one reader asked. Consider this:

Politico:

• Mitch McConnell: President Obama Not Doing His Part. The Republican leader of the Senate said Sunday that President Barack Obama is not serious about tackling structural reforms to get spending and debt under control. While Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he’s had plenty of recent talks with Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, he doesn’t believe the White House is willing to overhaul entitlements like Social Security and Medicaid.

USA Today:

• Recession Inspires People to Start Own Businesses.

AP:

• Libyan rebels captured the oil port town of Ras Lanouf from forces loyal to Colonel Muammar Qaddafi.

Reuters:

• White House Considers Tapping Oil Reserves. White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley said on Sunday the Obama administration is considering tapping into the U.S. strategic oil reserve as one way to help ease soaring oil prices. Speaking on NBC television's "Meet the Press," Daley said: "We are looking at the options. The issue of the reserves is one we are considering. ... All matters have to be on the table." On Wednesday, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu ruled out releasing oil from the reserve, saying ramped up oil production in Saudi Arabia should lower the crude price.
• London Stock Exchange Mulls Nasdaq(NDAQ) Takeover.

Financial Times:

• Hedge Fund Indices' Accuracy in Question. The Edhec-Risk Institute, an arm of France-based Edhec Business School, stirred the pot recently when it stated that “the performance of multi-strategy indices whose portfolios included illiquid [or less liquid] strategies was extraordinarily overstated after mid-2008”.
• Quant Shops Innovate to Survive. This trend is already starting to drive greater differentiation between dozens of quant shops in the US, many of which were seen to have been dragged down by strikingly similar momentum-oriented investment strategies that failed investors in the crash, notes Stephen Miles, a senior investment consultant at Towers Watson in London.

Telegraph:

• Libya: British Army Ready for Mission at 24 Hours' Notice. British troops have been put on stand-by for deployment to Libya if the crisis in the country worsens.
• HSBC's Loss Alert on US Foreclosures. HSBC has warned that the move by regulators to halt its home repossessions in the US may lead to it suffering larger losses on the properties.
• HSBC Reveals Plans to Quit London for Hong Kong. HSBC has told its biggest shareholders that it is preparing to quit London in a shock move that the bank has revealed to key investors is now "more likely than not".

BBC:

• Spain Town Reintroduces Peseta to Boost Economy. A small town in northern Spain has decided to reintroduce the old Spanish currency - the peseta - alongside the euro to give the local economy a lift.

Russia Today:

• American Progressive Radio Host Stephen Lendman, in Chicago, Tells Moscow That US Plans to Colonize Libya, Brutalize the People and Steal Their Resources. (video)

Handelsblatt:

• European governments should ease the bailout terms for Greece and Ireland as they discuss ways to end the debt crisis, European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said. While German Chancellor Angela Merkel is skeptical about easing the bailout conditions, Rehn said there's a risk that both countries are being overstretched by too-strict loan conditions.
  

O Estado de S. Paulo:

• Itau Unibanco Holding SA plans to cut its forecast for Brazil's economic growth in 2011 to about 3.5% from 4%, citing an interview with Ilan Goldfajn, the bank's chief economist.

The Chosunilbo:

• Mynamar 'Developing Scud Missiles with North Korean Assistance'. Myanmar is developing its own Scud-type missiles with North Korean assistance, according to Japanese daily Sankei Shimbun. The two countries have been maintaining close military ties since 2008 as the relationship between the two has grown stronger over the years. Sankei Shimbun reported Sunday that a munitions factory located near the small Myanmar town of Minhla is in fact a workplace for North Korean missile experts. Experts fear the development could spark a regional arms race, prompting neighboring countries such as Thailand to develop or procure their own missile arsenal.

Yonhap News:

• North Korea has deployed tanks around its leader Kim Jong Il's houses in Pyongyang to ward off a possible revolt amid continued unrest in the Middle East, citing a senior official of the National Intelligence Service.

Beijing Daily:

• China should guard against individuals trying to create social disruptions similar to those in the Middle East, the Beijing Daily said today in an editorial. There are people who use the Internet to incite illegal gatherings and create "street politics," the newspaper said.

South China Morning Post:

• China's four biggest banks expect to lend almost $457 billion this year, about the same as last year, citing bankers it didn't identify.

arabianBusiness.com:

• Saudi CDS Could Feel Impact of MENA Unrest, Credit Agricole Says. Credit Agricole CIB said continuing unrest across the MENA region will keep Saudi Arabian markets volatile. “There is no doubt that uncertainty about the wider Middle East will continue to impact Saudi Arabia’s CDS [credit default swaps] or could at some point impact SAR forward rates, should uncertainty escalate further,” Agricole said in a note. “The strength of events in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Libya as well as Yemen has led most to expect the worst to come for the rest. Differentiation and re-classification of risk is warranted, but it takes time for the dust to settle. Regional stock markets will continue to reflect the higher perceived risks.” The market shifts in Saudi come as local markets are beginning to price a shift of contagion from North Africa to GCC economies, namely Bahrain and Saudi. “The possibility of contagion spreading to Saudi Arabia remains low although markets are pricing a higher risk premium. Bahrain's future is a leading indicator but there is not enough clarity about short-term political outcomes,” Agricole said. As unrest continues, there will likely be more pressure on Saudi’s markets. “Markets will continue to price additional risk premiums despite the arguments put forward about Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and political capacity to weather the regional crisis,” the note said. “The CDS spreads have widened recently. However, they remain far below the level they reached during the Dubai crisis. The spread could remain large or widen further in the short term.” The analysts also described the challenges posed to emerging markets in the region, by both inflation and MENA turmoil. “It remains unclear when the situation could stabilise on either front, and it may be worth beginning to position for bad news,” they said.

IBNLive:

• Egypt: Coptic Christians Protest Church Burning. Cairo: Hundreds of Coptic Christians gathered outside the state television and radio building in Cairo on Sunday to protest against the burning of a church following religious clashes south of the capital. Protesters, some carrying wooden crosses and Egyptian flags, demanded that the armed forces intervene to protect Coptic communities and churches. The demonstration comes two days after a church was torched following clashes between Muslims and Christians in the town of Sol, 90 km south of Cairo. Protesters demanded that those responsible for the incident be brought to justice. Clashes in Sol were triggered when residents discovered that a Christian man from the town was having a relationship with a Muslim woman from a Cairo suburb, security sources said. The fathers of the two families were killed by gunfire during the clashes on Friday. After the men's funerals later that day, members of the Muslim community set fire to the Coptic Martyrs' Church in Sol. Tension has been especially high since the bombing of a Coptic church in Alexandria on New Year's Eve, which killed more than 20 people. Authorities blamed Al-Qaeda for the bombing.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:

• Made positive comments on (MET).
• Made negative comments on (JOE).

Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (AEO), target $20.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.50% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.50 +.5 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 118.75 +.75 basis point.
  
• S&P 500 futures -.45%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.48%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (CIEN)/-.17
• (URBN)/.52

Economic Releases
3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for January is estimated at $3.4B versus $6.09B in December.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Lockhart speaking, Fed's Fisher speaking, Cowen Healthcare Conference, Stifel Nicolaus Consumer Conference, Deutsche Bank Media/Telecom Conference, CSFB Media/Communications Convergence Conference, (DDR) investor conference, (BEAV) investor meeting and the (PEG) analyst conference could also impact trading today.
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by transportation and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as growing Mideast unrest, rising energy prices, emerging market inflation worries and more shorting offset earnings optimism, fund inflows, buyout speculation and mostly positive economic data. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,321.15 +.10%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,321.15 +.10%
  
• DJIA 12,169.88 +.32%
  
• NASDAQ 2,784.67 +.13%
  
• Russell 2000 824.99 +.37%
  
• Wilshire 5000 13,818.36 +.13%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 606.17 +.16%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 670.82 +.05%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 750.41 +.14%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,073.26 +.04%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 701.63 -.29%
  
• Transports 5,060.54 unch.
  
• Utilities 412.56 +.41%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 46.93 +3.36%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,054.91 -.18%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 886.95 -.20%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 632.76 -.15%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +121,800 +1.08%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +250 +114
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 56.0 -3.45%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +271,887 +24.14%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,569,519 +4.18%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -4.94%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.91 +15.76%
  
• ISE Sentiment 156.0 +5.41%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.65 +153.84%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 19.06 -.83%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.02 -4.93%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,117.64 -1.32%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.751 Trillion unch.
  
• AAII % Bulls 36.79 +.44%
  
• AAII % Bears 33.16 -8.25%
  

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 362.88 +3.29%
  
• Crude Oil 104.42 +6.30%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 304.64 +4.74%
  
• Natural Gas 3.81 -5.30%
  
• Heating Oil 308.93 +4.56%
  
• Gold 1,428.60 +1.32%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 275.08 +2.74%
  
• Copper 448.55 +.26%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 418.33 USD/Ton -3.54%
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,715 Yuan/Ton -1.61%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,757.55 +2.71%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 129.80 -.54%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +97.50 +27.3 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 72.9% chance of no change, 27.1% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/15
• US Dollar Index 76.41 -1.12%
  
• Yield Curve 281.0 +11 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.49% +8 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.528 Trillion +.49%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.50 -7.78%
• California Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 218.59 -1.70%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 173.17 -2.07%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 191.08 -2.59%
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 133.07 -2.15%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 87.68 -1.0%
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50% +9 basis points
  
• TED Spread 20.0 +1 basis point
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 83.49 +.75%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 116.44 -5.37%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 213.07 -5.49%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 192.0 unch.
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.879 Trillion +1.39%
  
• Business Loans 617.10 +.39%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 388,500 -3.20%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.0% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.87% -8 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 445.1 -6.49%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -39.3 -.1 point
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.6% +10 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.47/gallon +.18/gallon
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 3.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 1,346 +8.11%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +6.67%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 220,589 -5.73%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.80%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.08%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +4.96%
• Construction +3.09%
  
• HMOs +3.03%
• Networking +2.89%
• Semis +2.71%

Lagging Sectors

• Education -2.22%
• Airlines -2.39%
• Banks -2.40%
  
• Disk Drives -2.91%
• Alt Energy -3.23%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (31)

• OVTI, SHS, ARGN SRZ, MRX, CAP, TTI, HNR, TREX, FXEN, GIFI, BOOM, PEET, SD, PNM, EXAM, TRLG, TRGT, FIX, IPCM, NOG, OSTK, PMC, NHP, ACIW, NHI, EIX, DY, IRWD, GB and HR
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (26)

• TRS, TTEC, VTR, PERY, PBY, KWK, PHH, USMO, CLGX, MED, SFY, SIGM, TWGP, CVGW, RP, FSYS, HITK, CCG, TNS, RST, WTI, GTY, AMLN, MDAS, NTRI and CEDC
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change