Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • European Unemployment Rate Rises to Highest in Almost 15 Years. Euro-region unemployment rose to the highest in almost 15 years and manufacturing contracted for a ninth month, adding to signs the economy continues to weaken. The jobless rate in the 17-nation euro area increased to 10.9 percent in March from 10.8 percent in February, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since April 1997, when the rate reached a record high, according to Bloomberg News data going back to 1990. A manufacturing gauge in the region fell to 45.9 in April from 47.7 in March, Markit Economics said. Spain had the region’s highest unemployment rate in March, at 24.1 percent, with Greece at 21.7 percent, the report showed.
  • Spanish Stocks Plunge to Three-Year Low as Banks Tumble. Spanish stocks plunged, pushing the IBEX 35 Index (IBEX) to its lowest level in more than three years, as a selloff in banks sent the benchmark measure tumbling. Banco Santander SA (SAN), the country’s largest lender, lost more than 3 percent as Moody’s Investors Service prepared to concluded its review of the euro area’s banks. Sacyr Vallehermoso SA (SYV) dropped 4 percent as a report showed manufacturing in Spain contracted. Red Electrica Corp. slid 2.2 percent as Bolivia seized the company’s local assets. The IBEX 35 dropped 2.6 percent to 6,831.9 at the close in Madrid, its lowest level since March 2009. The gauge has sunk 20 percent this year, the worst performance of 24 developed markets tracked by Bloomberg, as the Spanish economy entered its second recession since 2008. “The euro-zone debt crisis has become center stage once more with Spain the focus of attention,” said Ted Scott, director of global strategy at F&C Asset Management in London, in a note to clients. Spanish bond yields “reflect the diminishing effect of the European Central Bank’s liquidity program and increasing concerns about the Spanish economy and especially its banking sector.” Spain’s benchmark 10-year bonds fell today, pushing yields eight basis points higher to 5.85 percent.
  • Hollande Envoys Said to Brief ECB Officials on His Economic Plan. Aides to French Socialist presidential candidate Francois Hollande have had contacts with top European Central Bank officials to brief monetary policy makers on his economic plans, four advisers to Hollande said. Hollande’s team has spoken to at least two members of the ECB’s executive board, said the advisers, who declined to be named because the discussions were confidential. An ECB spokeswoman denied any such contacts have taken place. She spoke on condition of anonymity, in line with ECB policy. The meetings and telephone conversations, which began last year and have carried on as Hollande’s campaign progressed, underscore concern that a change in government in Europe’s second-largest economy risks upsetting efforts to quell the region’s financial crisis.
  • Sovereign, Company Bond Risk Rises, Credit-Default Swaps Show. The cost of insuring against default on European sovereign and corporate debt rose, according to BNP Paribas SA. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 governments climbed 3.5 basis points to 277.5 at 9:15 a.m. in London. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 50 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings jumped 12.5 basis points to 640.5. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings rose two to 138.5. The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers increased two basis points to 236 and the subordinated index rose 0.5 to 392.5.
  • Madness in Spain Lingers as Ireland Chases Recovery. From atop the stone walls of Avila, Spain, a medieval city an hour’s drive northwest of Madrid, beyond the parking lots and empty playgrounds and thousands of vacant new apartments, a construction crane can be seen moving on the horizon as building continues. “Avila isn’t an exception,” said Jesus Encinar, co- founder of Madrid-based Idealista, Spain’s largest property website, and an Avila native. “It’s a small-scale example of the madness that gripped the whole real estate industry.” In the stages of death of a real estate boom, Spain is still in denial.
  • ECB Immunity on Greek Debt Blunts Bond-Buying Tool: Euro Credit. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s insistence on shielding his institution from losses on Greek debt risks blunting his crisis-fighting tools. Investors forgave about 100 billion euros ($132 billion) of Greek debt in March in the biggest sovereign restructuring ever, swapping existing bonds for new securities with clauses making future overhauls easier. The ECB’s holdings, however, were excluded from both the losses and the new terms.
  • Payroll Survey Signals U.S. Jobs Slowing as Factory Orders Drop: Economy. Companies in the U.S. added fewer workers last month, according to data from a private survey, pointing to a cooling in the job market, as the Commerce Department also reported a decline in factory orders in March. Private employment increased by 119,000, the smallest gain in seven months, after rising by 201,000 in March, Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services said. Orders to factories fell 1.5 percent following a 1.1 percent gain in February.
  • Oil Drops From Five-Week High on U.S., European Jobs. Oil fell after the U.S. Energy Department reported that crude inventories surged to the highest level in more than 21 years and production and imports climbed. Futures dropped as much as 1.2 percent after the department said supplies rose 2.84 million barrels to 375.9 million last week, the most since September 1990. Output increased 8,000 barrels a day to 6.12 million, the highest level since November 1999. Crude also decreased as U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast in April and factory orders decreased in March. Crude oil for June delivery fell 78 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $105.38 a barrel at 12:39 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $105.54 a barrel before release of the inventory report at 10:30 a.m. The price dropped as low as $104.91. Futures have declined 7.2 percent in the past year. Brent oil for June settlement dropped $1.28, or 1.1 percent, to $118.38 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
  • Wealthy Americans Renouncing US Citizenship Rises 700% in 4 Years on Tax Concerns. Rich Americans renouncing U.S. citizenship rose sevenfold since UBS AG (UBSN) whistle-blower Bradley Birkenfeld triggered a crackdown on tax evasion four years ago. About 1,780 expatriates gave up their nationality at U.S. embassies last year, up from 235 in 2008, according to Andy Sundberg, secretary of Geneva’s Overseas American Academy, citing figures from the government’s Federal Register. The embassy in Bern, the Swiss capital, redeployed staff to clear a backlog as Americans queued to relinquish their passports.
  • Chinese Legal Activist Chen Leaves Beijing U.S. Embassy. Hours after the deal was announced, the Associated Press reported that Chen said by phone that he now wants to leave China with his family. Chen said a U.S. official relayed a threat by Chinese authorities to beat his wife to death if he stayed in the U.S. embassy, according to the AP. An American official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, denied that any U.S. official passed on such a threat.
  • Dimon Cites ‘Give and Take’ After Bank Chiefs Meet at Fed. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said there was “give and take” when bank leaders met with Federal Reserve officials to discuss industry oversight in New York today. Dimon, who said “everything” was a potential topic as he and other CEOs entered the New York Fed’s offices, declined to elaborate on the talks as he left. Top executives were scheduled to meet with Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo today, four people familiar with the meeting said earlier this week.
  • Egypt Clashes Kill 9; Presidential Hopefuls Suspend Campaign. Clashes between Egyptian protesters and unknown assailants left at least nine people dead, as the worst street violence in Cairo this year added to the unrest in the country three weeks before slated presidential elections. The violence that erupted around dawn near the Defense Ministry prompted two leading presidential candidates to announce they were suspending their campaigns in protest. Mohamed Mursi, who was fielded for the presidency by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, put the blame primarily on the ruling military.
Wall Street Journal:
  • France Poll: Hollande 53.5%, Sarkozy 46.5% In 2nd Round - BVA. French Socialist Party presidential candidate Francois Hollande narrowed his lead over incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy in the latest poll, released five days before the second round of presidential elections. The poll, published Tuesday and carried out April 30 and May 1 by BVA, shows 53.5% of potential voters would choose Hollande if elections were held now, while 46.5% of them would pick Sarkozy. Hollande lost one percentage point since the last poll under one week ago, while Sarkozy gained one percentage point. Among the voters who chose to support far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round of elections, 87% said they would vote for Hollande in the second round, while only 4% plan to vote for Sarkozy, said Harris Interactive. As for supporters of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and centrist candidate Francois Bayrou, Sarkozy was backed by 36% of Bayrou's supporters and 57% of Le Pen's, the poll showed. Hollande drew 36% of Bayrou's supporters and 21% of Le Pen's. In the first round of French presidential elections held last Sunday, Hollande garnered 28.6% of votes, while Sarkozy got 27.2%. They move on to the next round on May 6. Le Pen came in third with 17.9%, Melenchon drew 11.1% and Bayrou 9.1%. Five other candidates shared the remaining votes.
  • Honeywell(HON) Chairman: Foreign Firms Scared of India Now. The chairman of Honeywell International Inc. warned that India's labyrinthine bureaucracy and aggressive regulation and tax policies are spooking foreign investors and will divert investment to China and elsewhere. "Foreign companies are starting to become scared here," said David M. Cote, 59 years old, in an interview in India's financial capital. "They are starting to say, 'What am I doing here?'"
  • Iran's Oil Production at Lowest Level in 20 Years - Consultant.
  • Microchip Tech(MCHP) to Buy Standard Microsystems(SMSC) for $939M. Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) agreed to acquire semiconductor-equipment and circuit maker Standard Microsystems Corp. (SMSC) for about $939 million as the analog chip company seeks to expand into the automotive, industrial and other markets.
  • U.S. Charges 107 People With Medicare Fraud. Federal authorities charged 107 doctors, nurses and social workers in seven cities with Medicare fraud Tuesday in a nationwide crackdown on alleged scams that bilked the taxpayer-funded program of $452 million—the highest dollar amount in a single Medicare bust in U.S. history.
MarketWatch:
  • Retailers' Sales Expected to Slow in April. After warmer weather and the timing of Easter boosted retailers’ sales in March, colder weather along the East Coast toward the end of the month likely slowed sales in April, analysts said. Ahead of retailers’ same-store sales reports on Thursday, analysts expect sales in April to rise 1.5%. That compares with an 8.7% gain in the year-earlier period, Retail Metrics data showed.
CNBC.com:
  • Legendary Energy Trader John Arnold to Retire. John Arnold, the billionaire manager of the Houston hedge fund Centaurus Advisors, told investors and employees Tuesday that he plans to retire, according to people familiar with the matter. The energy trader, who is in his late 30s, told associates he plans to devote his time to philanthropic pursuits, said one person familiar with the matter, and that he’ll return assets to investors.
  • What's This 'Fiscal Cliff' Anyway? Do I Need to Worry? "Fiscal cliff" is a term you'll be hearing much more often between now and the end of the year. That's when a half-trillion dollars worth of tax cuts and spending boosts go by the wayside, possibly dragging the U.S. economy into the abyss of another recession.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:

Reuters:

  • Copper Slips on Weak Euro, China Demand Concerns.
  • Special Report: Inside Chesapeake(CHK), CEO Ran $200 Million Hedge Fund. As chairman and CEO of Chesapeake Energy Corp, Aubrey McClendon has been a powerhouse in the vast U.S. natural gas market, directing the company's multibillion dollar energy-trading operation and setting output targets for America's second-largest producer. Behind the scenes, a Reuters investigation has found, McClendon also ran a lucrative business on the side: a $200 million hedge fund that traded in the same commodities Chesapeake produces.
  • Spain Sounding Out Investment Banks On Crisis Options. Spain is sounding out investment banks including Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs and UBS as it seeks a credible fix for its banks roiled by a collapse in real estate prices and now threatening the creditworthiness of Spain itself, sources familiar with the matter said.
  • Fed's Lacker: High Inflation Target "Dangerous". It would be "very dangerous" for the Federal Reserve to adopt a higher inflation target to spur growth in the hopes that it could bring inflation down later when it needed to, a top Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday. "I don't think it would be easy to temporarily adopt a higher target and then successfully return to a lower inflation," Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker told reporters after a speech. "In fact, I think it would be very dangerous."

Financial Times:

  • Playing the CDS-Bomb Basis. After holding our heads in our hands and getting over a wave of nausea, FT Alphaville looked up and realised that yes, we really were looking at a trade idea involving credit default swaps that takes a view on the likelihood of an Israeli missile strike on Iran. It’s a ugly world.

Telegraph:

  • The Eurozone Crisis is Back With a Bang. The data on the eurozone labour market and manufacturing sector as a whole is appalling, with the recession now manifestly metastasising out from the euro area periphery to the core. Even the German unemployment rate is now rising.
  • Debt Crisis: Live. Poor manufacturing data from Italy, Spain, France and Germany erodes early gains on European markets, while eurozone unemployment hits a record high of 10.9pc.

Shanghai Daily:

  • Home Buyers in Short Supply as Sales Decline 23.5%. HOME sales fell in Shanghai last month, according to the latest market research. Sales of new homes, excluding government-funded affordable housing, dropped 23.5 percent from March to 610,900 square meters in April, ending a two-month rally since February, according to a Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co report. New homes were selling at an average of 22,566 yuan (US$3,600) per square meter, an increase of 2.3 percent from March. "Purchases of new homes costing less than 20,000 yuan per square meter fell nearly 30 percent from March while those with a price tag of between 20,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan a square meter only climbed about 10 percent, giving rise to a quite notable decrease in volume," said Lu Qilin, a researcher at Deovolente.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.91%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -4.21% 2) I-Banking -1.63% 3) Networking -1.53%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • CHK, INT, DB, COP, E, CEVA, NVDA, ALK, LPLA, UBNT, KEYN, OTEX, OPEN, CAVM, PEET, CGNX, CTCT, VMED, IGTE, RIMM, ARUN, RRD, TRS, FARO, WBMD, NTAP, FISV, HSC, MSCI, CLX, UNM, CLH, AGN, CTCT, RBC, WXS, RATE and PLT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PLX 2) CTL 3) NTAP 4) PPO 5) PCYC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) UBNT 2) EQT 3) HRS 4) CHK 5) OPEN
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.33%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +1.77% 2) Homebuilders +1.66% 3) Hospitals +1.09%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SMSC, WWWW, ASNA, AZPN, TRIP, IACI, CNW, AEO, VSH, DGI, ENR, AGP, KND, RCG, WCG, WWW, TRLG and TWTC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AET 2) PLX 3) OPEN 4) ALL 5) GRMN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PEP 2) WWW 3) BA 4) LMT 5) AEO
Charts:

Wednesday Watch


Evening Headlin
es
Bloomb
erg:
  • Madness in Spain Lingers as Ireland Chases Recovery: Mortgages. From atop the stone walls of Avila, Spain, a medieval city an hour's drive northwest of Madrid, beyond the parking lots and empty playgrounds and thousands of vacant new apartments, a construction crane can be seen moving on the horizon as building continues. "Avila isn't an exception," said Jesus Encinar, co-founder of Madrid-based Idealista, Spain's largest property website, and an Avila native. "It's a small-scale example of the madness that gripped the whole real estate industry." In the stages of death of a real estate boom, Spain is still in denial.
  • Europe Puts at Record Versus S&P 500 Before Elections: Options. Traders have never paid so much to protect against European stock losses relative to the U.S. as investors prepare for weekend elections in France and Greece. Implied volatility for three-month contracts closest to the level of the Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) Index was 54 percent higher yesterday than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gap widened from a 2012 low of 18 percent on March 13, the data show. Investors are insuring equities on concern the elections will undermine plans to contain the debt crisis. French voters pick a president on May 6, the same day as Greece holds parliamentary elections. Francois Hollande, who topped Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round of French voting, has criticized the president’s attempt with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to quell the crisis through budget cuts.
  • ECB Immunity on Greek Debt Blunts Bond-Buying Tool: Euro Credit. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's insistence on shielding his institution from losses on Greek debt risks blunting his crisis-fighting tools.
  • Goldman(GS) Says Rule Curbing Counterparty Links Risks Jobs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said a proposed Federal Reserve rule seeking to limit links between banks could cut U.S. economic growth by as much as 0.4 percentage point and eliminate as many as 300,000 jobs. The estimate, the most specific so far in reaction to the Fed’s proposed rule, was based on New York-based Goldman Sachs’s own research and assessment of how it would affect the corporate debt market, according to an April 30 letter to the Fed that was made public yesterday. “The impact on the corporate bond market alone could drive the elimination of 150,000 to 300,000 American jobs,” wrote Goldman Sachs Chief Risk Officer Craig W. Broderick. “Smaller companies that lack access to alternative sources of capital -- and that drive job creation -- would be hardest hit.”
  • Three Fed Policy Makers See No Need to Ease. Three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee said they don’t see a need to ease policy further as the U.S. economy maintains its expansion. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said in Washington that more monetary stimulus risks stoking inflation while doing little to strengthen the recovery. San Francisco’s John Williams said the outlook he expects doesn’t warrant more bond buying, and Atlanta’s Dennis Lockhart repeated that he’s skeptical of the benefits of such action.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Mexico Balks at Fed Proposal. Mexico joined Wall Street firms in criticizing a Federal Reserve proposal to limit the exposure of banks to individual companies, governments and other banks. Bank of Mexico governor Agustín Carstens knocked the Fed's decision to exempt Treasurys but not the debt of other governments from financial-firm exposure limits, and he urged the U.S. central bank to revisit its decision in a letter dated April 26 that the Fed posted on its website Tuesday.
  • The Big Doubt Over Facebook(FB). Facebook Inc. has built a $3 billion-a-year advertising business by convincing marketers to buy new forms of advertising designed to create buzz around their brands. But some advertisers with big spending accounts are wondering whether they're getting their money's worth.
  • White House Efforts to Relax Gun Exports Face Resistance. U.S. homeland-security and law-enforcement agencies have objected to Obama administration proposals to relax export restrictions on high-powered firearms, threatening a centerpiece of the president's trade and national-security agenda. The agencies, in internal memos viewed by The Wall Street Journal, warn the changes could help arm drug cartels and terrorists and make it harder for the U.S. to crack down on gun-trafficking.
  • Blahous and Capretta: Exposing the Medicare Double Count. The same money can't be spent twice. ObamaCare tries to do precisely that, and the government will have to borrow the difference.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
CNBC:
  • Cut Tax Rate, Save Small Business: Fiorina. The U.S. marginal tax rate is the highest in the world, and that is putting a big hit on small business, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina said Tuesday. Small businesses are what drive the U.S. economy and provide jobs, the CNBC contributor told Closing Bell. "I would both lower the marginal rate and close the loopholes. It’s actually small business I’m worried about, not big business," she said of the tax rate on the last dollar of income earned. While big business can "put their jobs and factories anywhere" to avoid paying high U.S. taxes, "net new job creation comes from small business, not large business" and more small businesses have been failing and fewer starting than at any time in the last 40 years," she said.

IBD:

Reuters:
  • International business weighs on OpenTable(OPEN) revenue. OpenTable Inc forecast full-year revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates, as the online restaurant reservation services provider's international business takes longer than expected to integrate the recent acquisition of a rival. Shares of the company were down 16 percent in extended trading after closing at $43.68 on Tuesday on the Nasdaq.
  • Broadcom(BRCM) outlook for profit margin disappoints. Chip maker Broadcom Corp said its gross profit margin for the current quarter would drop from the first quarter because of acquisition-related costs, and its shares fell as much as 1.9 percent in after-hours trade.
  • Sturm Ruger(RGR) profit doubles on new gun launches. Gun maker Sturm Ruger and Co Inc's first-quarter profit nearly doubled as sales of its rifles and guns were boosted by strong demand for new products, sending its shares up 4 percent in extended trading.
Financial Times:
  • Commodities Prices Dent Company Profits. High oil and commodities prices are starting to dent the profitability of the world’s largest industrial and consumer goods companies, with businesses from Procter & Gamble in the US to BASF in Europe warning of a strong headwind. As companies release their results for the first quarter, executives are warning that rising raw materials prices, particularly oil, are now a problem.
Telegraph:
  • Electoral silence on France's slow economic decline. France's economy has weathered the global crisis of the last five years deceptively well, shielded by a Leviathan state and the postponement of hard choices. Yet the underlying decline that began 30 years ago has gathered speed. France's share of eurozone exports has dropped from 17pc to 13pc since 2000.
  • Europe needs creativity not billions of euros, says German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Angela Merkel has said Europe needs "political courage and creativity rather than billions of euros" in a thinly disguised rejection of Francois Hollande's pledge to re-write the fiscal pact if he wins the French presidential election on Sunday.

China Securities Journal:
  • China New Lending May Have Fallen 30%. New yuan loans may total 700b yuan last month vs 1.01t yuan in March. Th big four banks extended only 101.7b yuan of new loans as of April 25. The big four banks lost >1t yuan of deposits in the first two weeks of April. April new lending was restricted by government loan quotas and a slowing economy.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 163.0 -2.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 135.50 -1.0 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures -.25%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (CBE)/1.00
  • (AB)/.24
  • (BZH)/-.42
  • (ENR)/1.08
  • (IACI)/.46
  • (WXS)/.91
  • (CVS)/.63
  • (RDC)/.34
  • (TWX)/.64
  • (WCG)/.51
  • (CVD)/.60
  • (ALL)/1.12
  • (WFM)/.59
  • (IPI)/.29
  • (GMCR)./64
  • (HTZ)/.00
  • (ONXX)/-.78
  • (SYMC)/.38
  • (WLT)/.80
  • (V)/1.51
  • (APKT)/.17
  • (HIG)/.91
  • (TSO)/.27
  • (MRO)/.87
  • (MA)/5.30
  • (AGN)/.87
  • (CLX)/1.03
  • (CMCSA)/.42
  • (DVN)/1.43
  • (SPW)/.24
  • (SKYW)/-.16
  • (ICE)/2.02
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to fall to 170K versus 209K in March.

10:00 am EST

  • Factory Orders for March are estimated to fall -1.7% versus a +1.3% gain in February.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +2,500,000 barrels versus a +3,978,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -350,000 barrels versus a -3,052,000 decline the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -1,500,000 barrels versus a -2,235,000 decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by .4% versus a +.1% gain the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Lacker speaking, Fed's Tarullo speaking, ISM New York and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on More US Economic Optimism, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 16.26 -5.19%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 +31.48%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -3.41%
  • NYSE Arms .77 -36.54%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 93.55 -1.29%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 233.63 -3.34%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 275.25 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 244.59 -2.73%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 27.75 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 38.5 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 169.0 +3 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $145.40/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.80 +1.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating a +54 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my Tech, Medical and Retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Merkel Rejects Stimulus Package for Growth, Abendblatt Reports. German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected the introduction of stimulus packages to create economic growth in Europe, Hamburger Abendblatt reported in a preview of an article that will run tomorrow, citing Merkel. It is “important that we break with the idea that growth always costs a lot of money and must be the result of expensive stimulus programs,” Merkel said in answer to questions posed by Abendblatt. She instead proposed programs that need “political courage and creativity rather than billions of euros,” the newspaper reported. Europe must implement structural reforms that eliminate growth obstacles and improve competition and should focus on education, research, a sensible salary development and the opening up of job markets to achieve sustainable growth, Abendblatt cited Merkel as saying. The way out of Europe’s crisis rests on two pillars -- solid finances and measures for growth and employment, the German chancellor said. Germany is willing to strengthen the European Investment Bank to help it provide more support, Merkel told Abendblatt.
  • ECB Loans Plant Sees of European Disintegration. European Central Bank measures to stem the region’s debt crisis threaten instead to undermine the euro. ECB loans worth more than $1.3 trillion have been recycled into government bonds, capping borrowing costs. As Italy’s reliance on its local institutions increases and Spanish banks accelerate purchases of domestic government securities, however, the economic ties that bind the fate of euro members to each other loosen, weakening the incentives for cross-border support to defend the currency union. “As the local bond markets have become owned only by domestic institutions, there is less and less incentive for the other countries to support and bail out one of those,” said Stephane Monier, who helps manage more than $150 billion as head of fixed income and currencies at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “Basically you’re planting the seeds for the disintegration of the euro zone.”
  • Manufacturing in U.S. Grows at Fastest Pace in a Year: Economy. Manufacturing grew in April at the fastest pace in almost a year, propelled by a pickup in orders that signaled factories will remain a source of strength for the U.S. expansion. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to 54.8 last month, exceeding the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey and the best reading since June, the Tempe, Arizona-based group’s report showed today.
  • Fed Said to Criticize Banks on Risk Models in Stress Test. The Federal Reserve criticized how some of the 19 largest U.S. banks calculated potential losses and planned dividends in this year’s stress tests, people with knowledge of the process said. The critiques will be part of feedback letters sent to the lenders this week that cover everything from data collection to risk measurement, said three of the people, who declined to be identified because communications with the Fed are private. Flaws included marking down all housing prices at the same rate, rather than matching them to specific regions, and planning dividends that could drain needed capital.
  • Iraq's credit risk surged to the highest in almost two years as a dispute between the central government and authorities in the Northern Kurdish region threatens to undermine the Arab nation's oil exports. 5-year credit default swaps for the country sitting on the world's fifth-largest crude deposits reached 467 on April 23, the highest since August 2010, according to CMA. The contracts jumped 108 basis points from the lowest level in more than four months on March 19, surpassing a 17 basis-point gain in average Middle East credit risk, excluding Iraq, and a 41 basis point advance for nations in central and eastern Europe in that period.
  • Oil Rises to One-Month High. Crude oil for June delivery gained $1.16, or 1.1 percent, to $106.03 a barrel at 11:29 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It touched $106.32, the highest intraday level since March 28. Prices climbed 1.8 percent in April and are up 7.3 percent this year. Brent oil for June settlement gained 29 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $119.76 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
  • Indian Exports Shrank in March for First Time Since 2009. Indian exports fell in March for the first time in two and a half years as Europe’s debt crisis and slower Chinese growth hurt demand. Merchandise shipments dropped 5.7 percent from a year earlier to $28.7 billion, the government said in a statement in New Delhi today. Imports rose 24.3 percent to $42.6 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $13.9 billion. Exports last shrank year-on-year in September 2009. India’s trade deficit surged to a record $184.9 billion in the fiscal year ended March 31 as elevated crude oil prices stoked import bills and a struggling global recovery hurt exports. “The fragile global economy doesn’t augur well for Indian exports,” Rupa Rege Nitsure, an economist at state-owned Bank of Baroda (BOB) in Mumbai, said before the report. “The widening trade deficit and slowing economic growth pose significant risks to India’s macroeconomic stability.”
  • Man Group Has $1 Billion Outflow; Shares Fall on Lower Cash. Man Group Plc (EMG), the world’s biggest publicly traded hedge fund manager, reported that clients withdrew a net $1 billion in the first quarter, while costs such as employee bonuses ate up more cash than analysts expected. The shares slid as much as 8 percent as analysts cut their earnings forecasts for the company. Clients redeemed $4.1 billion from Man’s investment funds, which was partly offset by $3.1 billion of sales, the London-based company said today.
  • Gross Says Credit Expansion to Create Inflation, Slow Growth. Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said structural distortions brought by central bank credit expansion will limit growth and accelerate the risk of inflation. Pimco favors bonds in the five-year maturity range, as well as dividend-paying stocks that yield 3 to 4 percent and recommended that real assets and commodities be part of an investor portfolio, Gross said in his monthly investment outlook posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s website today. “Not suddenly, but over time, gradually higher rates of inflation should be the result of QE policies and zero-bound yields that will likely continue for years to come,” Gross said, referring to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet through debt purchases, or quantitative easing, known as QE.
  • Electronic-Records Goals Aren't Met by 80% of U.S. Hospitals. More than 80 percent of hospitals have yet to achieve the requirements for the first stage of a $14.6 billion U.S. program to encourage doctors to adopt electronic medical records, the industry’s largest trade group said. The program is too ambitious and goals may not be met, Rick Pollack, executive vice president of the American Hospital Association, said yesterday in a 68-page letter to the Health and Human Services Department. He cited “the high bar set and market factors, such as accelerating costs and limited vendor capacity.”
  • Dallas Fed Urges Removal of CEOs of Bailed-Out Banks. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said taxpayer aid to failing banks should come only after the voiding of all employment and bonus contracts and the removal of chief executive officers and boards of directors. “A set of harsh, non-negotiable consequences” for requesting U.S. Treasury assistance might also include “clawbacks” to gain cash and stock bonuses paid the top management team during the prior two years, the Dallas Fed said today in a slide presentation on its website. The proposal reflects Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher’s view that large U.S. banks need to be split apart because they operate with an implied government safety net that puts their risks of failure on taxpayers. The “institutions that amplified and prolonged the recent financial crisis remain a hindrance to full economic recovery and to the very ideal of American capitalism,” Fisher said in an essay in the Dallas Fed’s 2011 annual report posted online.
  • Bolivia Seizing Unit of Spanish Power Company Red Electrica. Bolivia is seizing the local assets of Spain’s Red Electrica Corp. to give the government control of the Andean nation’s electricity grid. President Evo Morales signed the nationalization decree today, Communications Minister Amanda Davila said in a telephone interview from La Paz. The Alcobendas, Spain-based company’s investment in its Bolivian unit was inadequate and the energy industry should be controlled by the government, Davila said.
  • Lacker Says Fed May Have to Tighten Even With Unemployment at 7%. Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said the central bank may have to raise interest rates when the unemployment rate is at 7 percent or higher. Speaking in an interview today at the Bloomberg Washington Summit hosted by Bloomberg Link, he said the Fed will probably have to raise rates in mid-2013. Adding more monetary stimulus now would raise inflation risks without doing much to boost growth, he said. “It could well be above 7 percent, and I think we have to prepare for that,” Lacker said. “I think it’s a misconception to think we have to get unemployment all the way down to 5 or some number like that before we raise rates.” Lacker has cast the only dissenting vote at each of the FOMC’s policy meetings this year. He has opposed the Fed’s statement that economic conditions will probably warrant “exceptionally low” levels of the federal funds rate at least through late-2014. Lacker said it is “really tricky” for the Fed to find “that time when interest rates need to rise to prevent inflation pressures from emerging, before you see them emerge, before you see inflation move up steadily.”
  • Einhorn Says Fed Rate Stance 'No Longer Useful,' Risks Inflation. Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn said Federal Reserve policy intended to stimulate the economy and create jobs is “no longer useful” because it risks inflation. Investors including Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross have said Fed policy makers may be adding the risk of future economic disruption. The central bank has kept interest rates near zero since late 2008.
Wall Street Journal:
  • There's Plenty of Money for Junk. Banks and investors are showering junk-rated companies with easy money, the latest sign that risk-taking is spreading through parts of the financial markets. Lenders are making more loans with few restrictions on borrowers—known as covenant-lite loans—to riskier companies than they did just a few months ago. Some $11.5 billion of these loans were issued in April, up from $3.6 billion in all of the first quarter, according to Thomson Reuters, making April the busiest for covenant-lite deals since last May.
  • PF Chang's(PFCB) Reaches Deal to Be Taken Private. P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc. has reached a deal with private-equity firm Centerbridge Partners LP to be taken private for about $1.1 billion. The company's shares jumped 30% to $51.44 Tuesday morning on the news. Through Monday's close, shares were up 28% this year.
  • GE(GE) Says China Is 'Hard,' Aims at Resource Hubs. For General Electric Co., Australia is the new China. The continent of 22 million people is set to generate more revenue for the industrial conglomerate this year than will the Middle Kingdom, with 1.3 billion. The shift stems in part from Chief Executive Jeff Immelt's shuffling of the company's business lines to emphasize energy. But it also reflects a significant rethinking of China's value for GE, which, after years of missed targets and slow growth in the country, has turned its attention to resource-rich locations that have friendlier rules for investing and fewer national champions as rivals.
MarketWatch:
CNBC.com:
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Zero Hedge:
New York Times:
paidContent:
Absolute Return + Alpha:
Advanced Trading:

cnet:

CharlotteObserver:
  • Charlotte to Curb Protests at Duke Energy(DUK), Bank of America(BAC) Meetings. The city of Charlotte said Monday that upcoming Duke Energy and Bank of America shareholders meetings will represent the first test of expanded police powers that grant officers more leeway to stop and search people in or near protests. The meetings have been designated “extraordinary events,” which were approved by the Charlotte City Council in January in preparation for September’s Democratic National Convention. The city also said police will have extra power during the Speed Street festival in May and the 4th of July celebration uptown.

Reuters:

Financial Times:

  • Those Increasing iTraxx Tranches, Behind the Scenes. It also prompted us to take a closer look at the recent, and rather remarkable, growth in trading in standardised credit tranches since the beginning of 2012. Such trades are effectively highly leveraged bets/hedges on the creditworthiness of corporations. So what’s behind this particular resurgence, whereby the net notional volumes outstanding have doubled?

Telegraph:

  • Debt Crisis: Live. US protestors from the Occupy movement took to the streets on May Day, as thousands of workers across Europe protested against spending cuts in a wave of rallies.

MailOnline:

  • SEALs Slam Obama for Using Them as 'Ammunition' in Bid to Take Credit for Bin Laden Killing During Election Campaign. Serving and former US Navy SEALs have slammed President Barack Obama for taking the credit for killing Osama bin Laden and accused him of using Special Forces operators as ‘ammunition’ for his re-election campaign. The SEALs spoke out to MailOnline after the Obama campaign released an ad entitled ‘One Chance’. Besides the ad, the White House is marking the first anniversary of the SEAL Team Six raid that killed bin Laden inside his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan with a series of briefings and an NBC interview in the Situation Room designed to highlight the ‘gutsy call’ made by the President.